OptionProbability
China sanctioned by US + Europe
CCP in power in 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]
Oil shortages in South Korea or Japan
CCP in power in 2050 [IF INVADE]
Taiwan blockaded before invasion
Japan allows use of airbases
US military intervention
Malacca Strait blockaded
Chinese mainland bombed
Taiwan surrenders
Chinese warships sunk by US submarine
Japanese military intervention
Malacca Strait blockaded > 1 month
Chinese warships sunk by US airforce
China attacks Japan
Food shortages in China
Oil shortages in China
Philippines attacked by Chinese
Guam attacked by Chinese
Philippines allows use of airbases
South Korea allows use of airbases
Malacca Strait blockaded > 12 months
Peaceful unification by 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]
European military intervention
Japan attacked by Chinese
South Korean military intervention
China attacks South Korea
Indian military intervention
US combat troops in Taiwan
US aircraft carrier sunk
US destroys TSMC factories
Tactical nuclear weapon used
Nuclear weapon used against civilians
75
70
68
61
56
55
54
48
47
45
44
43
42
41
40
39
38
37
36
33
31
28
24
19
12
10
Italian mainland to Sicily (Strait of Messina)
Scottish mainland to Orkney
Great Britain to the Isle of Wight
Bohai Strait crossing, China
Chinese mainland to Hainan (Qiongzhou Strait)
Suðuroy to Sandoy, Faroe Islands
Egypt to Saudi Arabia
Russian mainland to Sakhalin
Finland to Estonia
North Island to South Island, New Zealand (Cook Strait)
Sakhalin to Hokkaido
India to Sri Lanka (Palk Strait)
Java to Sumatra, Indonesia (Sunda Strait)
Morocco to Spain/Gibraltar (Strait of Gibraltar)
Great Britain to Ireland (Irish Sea)
Great Britain to the Isle of Man
Yemen to Dijbouti/Eritrea (Bab-el-Mandeb)
Japan to South Korea
Peninsular Malaysia to Sumatra (Malacca Strait)
Sicily to Tunisia (Strait of Sicily)
Russia to Alaska (Bering Strait)
Chinese mainland to Taiwan (Taiwan Strait)
80
69
63
59
50
34
25
20
14
13
3