Stuart News

Will the scientific community accept aspects of quantum consciousness by 2030? 🧠🔬⚛️🌀

Feb 28, 8:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.97%chance

454522

OptionVotes

YES

1049

930

When will Tesla share price reach $500?

Jan 2, 10:51 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

144420

OptionProbability

Nov-Dec 2026

Sep-Oct 2026

May-Jun 2026

Mar-Apr 2026

Jul-Aug 2026

Jan-Feb 2026

In 2040, who will Manifold vote as having had the most positive impact on the development of AI in the 21st century?

Nov 24, 7:52 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

311712

OptionProbability

Other

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Dario Amodei

Demis Hassabis

Sam Altman

Geoffrey Hinton

Paul Christiano

Amanda Askell

Elon Musk

Stuart Russell

Robert Miles

Yann LeCun

Ilya Sutskever

Rich Sutton

Daniel Kokotajlo

Marc Andreessen

Larry Summers

Joe Biden

Timnit Gebru

Émile Torres

Who will hold Marsha Blackburn's Senate seat on February 1, 2027?

Oct 25, 9:58 PMFeb 1, 2:59 PM

5629

OptionProbability

Glenn Jacobs

Tim Burchett

Damon Hininger

Pete Hegseth

Marsha Blackburn

Chuck Fleischmann

No one

Stuart McWhorter

Diana Harshbarger

Andy Ogles

Other

Will titanfall 3 come out in the next 5 years

Jul 10, 3:09 PMJul 10, 10:59 PM

54.63%chance

13600

OptionVotes

YES

1097

911

Which Australian politician was groomed by foreign spies according to the head of ASIO?

Feb 29, 3:26 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

10396

OptionProbability

Stuart Robert

Sam Dastyari

Christopher Pyne

Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the signatories of the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028?

May 16, 7:06 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

3286

OptionProbability

Other

Geoffrey Hinton

Sam Altman

Stuart Russell

Yoshua Bengio

Dario Amodei

Demis Hassabis

David Chalmers

Max Tegmark

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Toby Ord

Ray Kurzweil

🏅2027 UCI Road Racing Head-to-Head (H2H) Cycling Markets

Oct 10, 11:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1220

OptionProbability

(2027/07/02) In the Tour de France, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Paul Sexias?

(2027/09/04) In the La Vuelta, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Paul Sexias?

(2027/05/08) In the Giro d'Italia, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Paul Sexias?

(2027/01/19) In the Tour Down Under, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Jay Vine?

(2027/01/19) In the Tour Down Under, will Mauro Schmid outfinish Jay Vine?

Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028?

May 16, 7:23 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

12.01%chance

8186

OptionVotes

YES

271

Which book(s) will win Will Kiely's $1,000 bounty by being the new best overview of AI existential risk?

Oct 2, 8:15 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4125

OptionProbability

"Obsolete: Power, Profit, and the Race to Build Machine Superintelligence" by Garrison Lovely

"Superintelligence" by Nick Bostrom

"Human Compatible" by Stuart Russell

"The Alignment Problem" by Brian Christian

"The Precipice" by Tob Ord

"What We Owe the Future" by Will MacAskill

"If Anyone Builds it, Everyone Dies" by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares

Which book will win the 2026 Booker Prize?

Oct 5, 11:22 PMNov 15, 11:59 PM

638

OptionProbability

The Disappearers - Marlon James

John of John - Douglas Stuart

The End of Everything - M John Harrison

Black Bag - Luke Kennard

May We Feed the King - Rebecca Perry

The Things We Never Say - Elizabeth Strout

Will a previous Booker winner (Marlon James or Douglas Stuart) win the 2026 Booker Prize?

Oct 20, 5:55 AMNov 9, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

212

OptionVotes

YES

110

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Will the scientific community accept aspects of quantum consciousness by 2030? 🧠🔬⚛️🌀

When will Tesla share price reach $500?

In 2040, who will Manifold vote as having had the most positive impact on the development of AI in the 21st century?

Who will hold Marsha Blackburn's Senate seat on February 1, 2027?

Will titanfall 3 come out in the next 5 years

Which Australian politician was groomed by foreign spies according to the head of ASIO?

Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the signatories of the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028?

🏅2027 UCI Road Racing Head-to-Head (H2H) Cycling Markets

Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028?

Which book(s) will win Will Kiely's $1,000 bounty by being the new best overview of AI existential risk?

Which book will win the 2026 Booker Prize?

Will a previous Booker winner (Marlon James or Douglas Stuart) win the 2026 Booker Prize?

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