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Prediction markets for Sui

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

77.32%chance

10519439

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1897

748

Will anyone commit suicide due to fears of anti-aligned AI before 2030?

Mar 25, 3:29 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

87.28%chance

1237513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2529

1814

Will the Justice Department win its antitrust suit against Google?

Jan 24, 6:00 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

13.47%chance

292715

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2052

699

Will assisted suicide become legal in Michigan before 2035?

Aug 3, 3:32 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

27.78%chance

52305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1612

620

If Trump wins, will the US suicide rate decrease between his inauguration and the 2026 Midterms?

Mar 10, 5:39 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

36.89%chance

321775

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

993

Will suicide become allowed in any US state by the end of 2029?

Nov 18, 12:46 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

19.92%chance

21903

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

944

News coverage linking AI to suicide will triple — but actual suicides will not in 2026

Jan 2, 7:48 AMJan 14, 7:59 AM

65.83%chance

5722

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1388

721

Will SUI and APTOS blockchains merge into a single network by December 31st, 2026?

Aug 27, 5:03 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

32.63%chance

5564

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1437

696

Will I hear of anyone in the US or Canada placed under an involuntary psychiatric hold for talking about suicide from a philosophical perspective?

Nov 18, 2:21 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18.9%chance

14273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

966

Will assisted suicide become legal in Arizona before 2035?

Aug 3, 3:37 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

43.83%chance

5256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1132

883

Will assisted suicide become legal in Arizona before 2045?

Aug 3, 3:38 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

52.36%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

954

Will assisted suicide become legal in Michigan before 2045?

Aug 3, 3:32 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

50.24%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

995

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