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Top stories

France Faces One of Its Hottest Summers in 2025 with 50°C Possible, Sable d'Or Distress, and 2024 Arctic Heatwave Impact

France Faces One of Its Hottest Summers in 2025 with 50°C Possible, Sable d'Or Distress, and 2024 Arctic Heatwave Impact

Authors

7

6 months ago

Climate-Driven Arctic Changes Muffle NATO Sonar, Complicate Russian Sub Hunt

Authors

4

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Svalbard

Which countries will Russia invade by the end of 2030?

Sep 9, 7:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

203497

OptionProbability

Estonia

Lithuania

Latvia

Moldova

Norway (including Svalbard)

Finland

Poland

Japan

Denmark (including Greenland)

Sweden

United States

Germany

14

13

12

12

11

10

10

10

10

8

4

3

Russia annex Svalbard before EOY2027.

May 26, 5:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.5%chance

8438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

461

22

Will civilizational-preservation bunkers get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 30, 6:42 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.15%chance

7311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

228

200

Will Russia invade Svalbard by EOY2035?

Jan 13, 5:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.25%chance

5176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

268

37

Will there be any place UK citizens are allowed to live and work indefinitely in 2030 that they are not allowed in 2025?

May 16, 7:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.75%chance

355

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Will there be any place UK citizens are NOT allowed to live and work indefinitely in 2030 that they ARE allowed in 2025?

May 24, 11:24 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

35%chance

336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

73

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