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Prediction markets for Tel

Will Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail?

Aug 24, 10:15 PMAug 25, 8:59 PM

11.8%chance

10053982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4021

666

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

Sep 16, 8:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

86.75%chance

9327406

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1872

1109

What will be the next city to be nuked? (add your picks)

Jun 3, 7:12 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2810603

OptionProbability

None (before 2124)

Other

Delhi

New York City

Seoul

Tel Aviv

Kiev

Moscow

Taipei

Beijing

Washington DC

Islamabad

Karachi

Tehran

46

32

8

4

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Hunger Games with Teleoperated Robots, before 2028?

Oct 30, 3:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.84%chance

414917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2305

434

Which of these new signings will have 15+ goal involvements in the 2025-26 Premier League season?

Jul 1, 11:38 AMMay 22, 11:59 PM

262769

OptionProbability

Hugo Ekitike

Bryan Mbeumo

Joao Pedro

Nick Woltemade

Rayan Cherki

Mohammed Kudus

Matheus Cunha

Viktor Gyokeres

Benjamin Sesko

Florian Wirtz

Anthony Elanga

Mathys Tel

Yoane Wissa

Noni Madueke

Charalampos Kostoulas

Jamie Gittens

Liam Delap

Alexander Isak

91

85

82

81

72

59

56

49

45

38

37

34

31

28

28

28

26

14

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.3%chance

271379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1177

880

Grok uses Telegram channels as one of content sources by mid-2026?

May 31, 10:10 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

49.88%chance

81152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

1003

Will the Lazuli telescope see first light before 2030?

Jan 8, 7:39 PMDec 31, 7:00 PM

44.83%chance

7696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1109

901

Will humanity start building a Lunar Crater Radio Telescope before 2040?

Sep 3, 11:27 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.22%chance

17626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

962

Will a televised American Football match between teams of humanoid robots occur before 2035?

Mar 22, 5:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

33.53%chance

14431

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

959

What will be the results of Israel's next election?

Jan 5, 4:35 AMJun 30, 8:59 PM

12342

OptionProbability

> 20 new MKs (who never been in the Knesset before)

A party receive more than 3% of the valid votes but does not pass the electoral threshold

Netanyahu is not elected

A single list gets more than 30 seats

no coalition is formed

> 40 women elected

More valid votes in Tel Aviv than in Jerusalem

80

66

57

53

42

40

27

Quantum Telescopes by 2030?

Feb 15, 12:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.42%chance

11246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

987

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