Tel News

Will Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail?

Aug 24, 10:15 PMAug 25, 8:59 PM

6.37%chance

10157956

OptionVotes

YES

5848

493

What will be the next city to be nuked? (add your picks)

Jun 3, 7:12 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3811860

OptionProbability

None (before 2124)

Other

Kiev

another Ukrainian city besides Kyiv (e.g., Kharkiv, Odessa, or Dnipro)

Delhi

Tehran

New York City

Seoul

Brussels

Tel Aviv

Moscow

Taipei

Beijing

Washington DC

Islamabad

Karachi

Hunger Games with Teleoperated Robots, before 2028?

Oct 30, 3:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.84%chance

414917

OptionVotes

YES

2305

434

Will Euclid space telescope lower my credence in the standard model of cosmology?

Jul 23, 4:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.74%chance

321956

OptionVotes

YES

6059

5939

What will be the results of Israel's next election?

Jan 5, 4:35 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

351596

OptionProbability

Ben Gvir is elected to Knesset

> 20 new MKs (who never been in the Knesset before)

no coalition is formed

More valid votes in Tel Aviv than in Jerusalem

> 40 women elected

Netanyahu is not elected

A party receive more than 3% of the valid votes but does not pass the electoral threshold

A single list gets more than 30 seats

Bennett becomes PM

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.61%chance

271389

OptionVotes

YES

1167

885

Will a televised football (soccer) match between humanoid robots and professional humans occur before 2030?

Mar 22, 6:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

33.35%chance

21846

OptionVotes

YES

1095

667

Will there be a televised match between a robot and a top-10 human tennis player by 2035?

Nov 23, 11:30 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

51.35%chance

24730

OptionVotes

YES

1026

959

Will the Lazuli telescope see first light before 2030?

Jan 8, 7:39 PMDec 31, 7:00 PM

44.83%chance

7696

OptionVotes

YES

1109

901

Will humanity start building a Lunar Crater Radio Telescope before 2040?

Sep 3, 11:27 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.22%chance

17626

OptionVotes

YES

1009

962

Will a televised American Football match between teams of humanoid robots occur before 2035?

Mar 22, 5:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

33.53%chance

14431

OptionVotes

YES

1007

959

Quantum Telescopes by 2030?

Feb 15, 12:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.42%chance

11246

OptionVotes

YES

1015

987

Tel News

Prediction markets for Tel

Prediction markets for Tel

Prediction markets for Tel

Will Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail?

What will be the next city to be nuked? (add your picks)

Hunger Games with Teleoperated Robots, before 2028?

Will Euclid space telescope lower my credence in the standard model of cosmology?

What will be the results of Israel's next election?

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Will a televised football (soccer) match between humanoid robots and professional humans occur before 2030?

Will there be a televised match between a robot and a top-10 human tennis player by 2035?

Will the Lazuli telescope see first light before 2030?

Will humanity start building a Lunar Crater Radio Telescope before 2040?

Will a televised American Football match between teams of humanoid robots occur before 2035?

Quantum Telescopes by 2030?

Latest stories