Tel News

Will Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail?

Aug 24, 10:15 PMAug 25, 8:59 PM

6.37%chance

10157956

OptionVotes

YES

5848

493

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

Sep 16, 8:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

86.75%chance

9327406

OptionVotes

YES

1872

1109

What will be the next city to be nuked? (add your picks)

Jun 3, 7:12 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3811821

OptionProbability

None (before 2124)

Other

Kiev

another Ukrainian city besides Kyiv (e.g., Kharkiv, Odessa, or Dnipro)

Delhi

Tehran

New York City

Seoul

Brussels

Tel Aviv

Moscow

Taipei

Beijing

Washington DC

Islamabad

Karachi

Hunger Games with Teleoperated Robots, before 2028?

Oct 30, 3:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.84%chance

414917

OptionVotes

YES

2305

434

Will Euclid space telescope lower my credence in the standard model of cosmology?

Jul 23, 4:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.74%chance

321956

OptionVotes

YES

6059

5939

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.61%chance

271389

OptionVotes

YES

1167

885

What will be the results of Israel's next election?

Jan 5, 4:35 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

23888

OptionProbability

Ben Gvir is elected to Knesset

> 20 new MKs (who never been in the Knesset before)

Netanyahu is not elected

A party receive more than 3% of the valid votes but does not pass the electoral threshold

no coalition is formed

> 40 women elected

A single list gets more than 30 seats

More valid votes in Tel Aviv than in Jerusalem

Bennett becomes PM

Will the Telethon cast perform the "Six-Seven" when they reach 67 million pesos?

Aug 16, 2:33 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

68.85%chance

8714

OptionVotes

YES

1487

673

Will the Lazuli telescope see first light before 2030?

Jan 8, 7:39 PMDec 31, 7:00 PM

44.83%chance

7696

OptionVotes

YES

1109

901

Will humanity start building a Lunar Crater Radio Telescope before 2040?

Sep 3, 11:27 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.22%chance

17626

OptionVotes

YES

1009

962

Will a televised American Football match between teams of humanoid robots occur before 2035?

Mar 22, 5:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

33.53%chance

14431

OptionVotes

YES

1007

959

Quantum Telescopes by 2030?

Feb 15, 12:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.42%chance

11246

OptionVotes

YES

1015

987

Tel News

Prediction markets for Tel

Prediction markets for Tel

Prediction markets for Tel

Will Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail?

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

What will be the next city to be nuked? (add your picks)

Hunger Games with Teleoperated Robots, before 2028?

Will Euclid space telescope lower my credence in the standard model of cosmology?

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

What will be the results of Israel's next election?

Will the Telethon cast perform the "Six-Seven" when they reach 67 million pesos?

Will the Lazuli telescope see first light before 2030?

Will humanity start building a Lunar Crater Radio Telescope before 2040?

Will a televised American Football match between teams of humanoid robots occur before 2035?

Quantum Telescopes by 2030?

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