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Prediction markets for Tel

Will Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail?

Aug 24, 10:15 PMAug 25, 8:59 PM

7.13%chance

10156036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5467

520

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

Sep 16, 8:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

86.75%chance

9327406

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1872

1109

What will be the next city to be nuked? (add your picks)

Jun 3, 7:12 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3711811

OptionProbability

None (before 2124)

Other

Kiev

another Ukrainian city besides Kyiv (e.g., Kharkiv, Odessa, or Dnipro)

Delhi

Tehran

New York City

Seoul

Brussels

Tel Aviv

Moscow

Taipei

Beijing

Washington DC

Islamabad

Karachi

45

21

8

6

5

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Hunger Games with Teleoperated Robots, before 2028?

Oct 30, 3:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.84%chance

414917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2305

434

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.61%chance

271389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1167

885

Will the Lazuli telescope see first light before 2030?

Jan 8, 7:39 PMDec 31, 7:00 PM

44.83%chance

7696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1109

901

Will humanity start building a Lunar Crater Radio Telescope before 2040?

Sep 3, 11:27 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.22%chance

17626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

962

What will be the results of Israel's next election?

Jan 5, 4:35 AMJun 30, 8:59 PM

22603

OptionProbability

> 20 new MKs (who never been in the Knesset before)

Ben Gvir is elected to Knesset

Netanyahu is not elected

A single list gets more than 30 seats

Bennett becomes PM

no coalition is formed

A party receive more than 3% of the valid votes but does not pass the electoral threshold

> 40 women elected

More valid votes in Tel Aviv than in Jerusalem

91

90

61

60

54

53

52

40

27

Will a televised American Football match between teams of humanoid robots occur before 2035?

Mar 22, 5:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

33.53%chance

14431

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

959

Pavel Durov no longer CEO of Telegram by January 1st, 2028

Dec 12, 3:21 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

34.61%chance

7388

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1374

728

AI honesty #4: by 2027, will we have AI that would tell us if it was planning on destroying us (conditional on that being true)?

Oct 13, 4:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.51%chance

15345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

913

Quantum Telescopes by 2030?

Feb 15, 12:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.42%chance

11246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

987

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