OptionProbability
Non-Dem Senator, < 14 Dem Reps
Dem Senator, < 14 Dem Reps
Dem Senator, >= 14 Dem Reps
Non-Dem Senator, >= 14 Dem Reps
55
29
8
Execution date set
Scheduled execution stayed / postponed
Execution date set (post-October 2025)
Executed
Commuted to life / other clemency beyond stay of execution
Executed in 2026
Conviction removed (vacated, pardon, actual innocence, or otherwise)
Released from prison
Executed in 2025
Dies while on death row (not executed)
100
57
50
18
16
5
2025-2029
2030-2034
2035-2039
2045-2049
2050 or later
Before 2025
60
26
10
2
1
29-30
28
27
25
24
19-21
22
23
31-33
0-8
9-13
14-18
34-38
17
12
11
4
3
Gain more than 2
Gain 2
Gain 1
No Change
Lose more than 1
Lose 1
59
Democrat
Republican
89
Christian Menefee
Al Green
76
Get the latest stories live on any device.
Top Stories