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Prediction markets for The Arena

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Jun 24, 9:42 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

73.74%chance

2918608

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16683

6050

Will MTG Arena become the canonical source of rules functionality by the end of 2026?

Nov 18, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

1.83%chance

247188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7941

572

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8.77%chance

156407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3224

310

Which model family will rule the LMSYS Arena in 2026?

Dec 28, 11:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

104205

OptionProbability

Gemini (Google)

Claude (Anthropic)

Kimi (Moonshot)

DeepSeek

Llama (Meta)

Grok (xAI)

Qwen (Alibaba)

GPT (OpenAI)

Mistral (Mistral AI)

Test

69

19

9

5

5

5

5

4

4

0

Will the recipients of naming rights money for the FTX Arena receive a demand to give their money back (e.g. to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Dec 19, 12:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

76%chance

91954

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

172

At the end of 2026, will there be any European model that ranks higher than a model currently on LLM Agent Arena?

Jul 1, 12:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.73%chance

9906

OptionVotes

NO

YES

296

34

Will "New ARENA material: 8 exercise sets on alignm..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 5, 12:18 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.22%chance

1500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1500

936

How many labs will have a model that is higher than Fable 5 on the arena.ai agent arena at the end of 2026?

Sep 13, 11:19 AMDec 30, 11:00 PM

5379

OptionProbability

Above 1

Above 2

Above 3

Above 4

Above 5

96

95

95

54

24

Will Magic Arena's card pool contain at least half of the entire Magic card pool before 2028?

Feb 28, 4:06 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

24.53%chance

10209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

137

At the end of 2026 will there be any European model that ranks higher than Mistral Medium 3.5 on arena.ai agent arena?

Sep 1, 7:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.12%chance

7205

OptionVotes

NO

YES

260

38

Will the LMSYS Chatbot Arena still be 'a thing' in 2027, under the same evaluation method?

May 3, 3:57 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

43%chance

792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

When will the Crypto.com Arena be renamed?

Nov 1, 1:01 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

36%chance

229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

87

57

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