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Prediction markets for The Arena

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

Jan 22, 5:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.73%chance

78970558

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200868

63036

Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2025 (as decided by ChatBot Arena)?

Mar 20, 1:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

163192338

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

xAI

Other

Anthropic

Mistral

Meta

74

11

10

3

2

0

0

Which LLM will have the highest ELO at the end of 2025 on ChatBot Arena?

Dec 9, 8:02 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

112117314

OptionProbability

Google

xAI

OpenAI

None listed here

Anthropic

Meta

75

11

5

4

3

2

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Jun 24, 9:42 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

48.78%chance

2311100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10337

9667

Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?

Mar 10, 12:34 PMMar 11, 3:59 AM

5.51%chance

2310079

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4205

460

Will a company other than OpenAI, xAI, and Google top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?

Mar 5, 9:42 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

4.54%chance

579572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4586

218

any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at https://lmarena.ai/ reaches an Arena Score of at least 1520.0 (≥1520)

Nov 23, 4:04 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

23.85%chance

228291

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1787

560

Non-style controlled Arena Score removed from the Chatbot Arena before 2026? [lmarena.ai]

May 29, 4:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.92%chance

25020

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5771

173

Will MTG Arena become the canonical source of rules functionality by the end of 2026?

Nov 18, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

12.38%chance

19838

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1591

867

Will Magic: The Gathering Arena introduce bots in multiplayer by the end of 2025?

Dec 3, 8:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.71%chance

7700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1700

588

Will the Magic Arena card pool contain Panglacial Wurm before 2026?

Feb 13, 11:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.97%chance

16681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

926

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.77%chance

5234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

976

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