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Prediction markets for The Arena

Which LLM will have the highest ELO at the end of 2025 on ChatBot Arena?

Dec 9, 8:02 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9789303

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

xAI

Anthropic

None listed here

Meta

39

27

12

10

9

3

Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2025 (as decided by ChatBot Arena)?

Mar 20, 1:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12278731

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

xAI

Other

Anthropic

Meta

Mistral

41

29

10

10

8

1

0

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

Jan 22, 5:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.35%chance

3947145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118404

88423

Will GPT-4-Turbo be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of 2025?

Jan 28, 1:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.72%chance

4115184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6080

190

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Jun 24, 9:42 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

48.78%chance

2311100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10337

9667

Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?

Mar 10, 12:34 PMMar 11, 3:59 AM

5.17%chance

239890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4394

449

Will a company other than OpenAI, xAI, and Google top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?

Mar 5, 9:42 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

15.87%chance

505550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2303

434

Will GPT-5 top the LLMSys Chatbot Arena leaderboard within a month of its release?

Mar 29, 12:31 AMSep 1, 6:59 AM

74.34%chance

223032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

699

Non-style controlled Arena Score removed from the Chatbot Arena before 2026? [lmarena.ai]

May 29, 4:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.55%chance

22520

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3271

306

Will MTG Arena become the canonical source of rules functionality by the end of 2026?

Nov 18, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

12.82%chance

18788

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1541

875

Will Magic: The Gathering Arena introduce bots in multiplayer by the end of 2025?

Dec 3, 8:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.93%chance

6690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1690

592

Will the Magic Arena card pool contain Panglacial Wurm before 2026?

Feb 13, 11:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.97%chance

16681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

926

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