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Prediction markets for The Battery

Will Apple launch an iPhone with user-replaceable battery by the end of 2026?

Aug 13, 3:26 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

16.67%chance

1589715

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2834

1089

Will any car or truck with a solid state battery be delivered in the United States before EOY 2025

Jan 25, 6:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.69%chance

187338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1862

757

Will the iPhone be sold in the EU with a user-replaceable battery by 2027?

Jun 16, 7:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.7%chance

646012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1193

513

Will TSMC or any Taiwanese entity be accused of knowingly assisting the explosive pagers and battery attack on Lebanon?

Sep 18, 8:27 AMOct 8, 6:59 AM

5.72%chance

233679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4058

246

Will Apple launch an iPhone with user-replaceable battery by the end of 2025?

Aug 16, 6:37 PMDec 1, 6:29 PM

16.66%chance

433062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1288

907

Will the "BV100" nuclear-powered battery become commercially available by end of 2025?

Feb 5, 5:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.9%chance

271311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1190

847

When will an iPhone have a user-replaceable battery for the first time?

Dec 7, 2:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

201104

OptionProbability

in 2029, later or never

in 2027

in 2026

in 2025

in 2028

in 2024

44

30

12

8

6

1

🚘🔋🔌⛽️ When will battery electric vehicle sales exceed those of hybrid electric vehicles in the US?

Feb 21, 9:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26924

OptionProbability

Before 2030

2030 - 2040

Never / 2040 or after

78

15

7

Will Lithium stop being the most popular rechargeable battery chemistry before 2100?

Jun 21, 3:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

70.19%chance

18415

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1288

939

What will the $/kWh price for battery cells be at the end of 2025

Nov 7, 6:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.45%chance

8412

OptionProbability

YES

NO

365

85

Will a G7 country have greater than 50% of new car sales being battery powered electric vehicles by the end of 2026?

Nov 10, 3:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.69%chance

9310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

245

82

Will Tesla significantly invest in new battery chemistry before a solid state battery EV is delivered in the US?

Jan 30, 9:24 PMFeb 7, 4:59 AM

59.84%chance

885

OptionVotes

NO

YES

192

112

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