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The Box News

Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?

Jul 31, 1:09 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

58.71%chance

214219

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1192

839

Will Marius Binner Win the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge 2026

Oct 1, 10:45 AMNov 15, 12:59 AM

49.95%chance

83312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1001

999

Will Jake Paul and Logan Paul compete against one another in a boxing match before the end of 2026?

Jul 28, 1:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.62%chance

142981

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2400

692

Will Anthony Joshua and Logan Paul compete against one another in a boxing match before the end of 2027

Dec 25, 3:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.59%chance

52976

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2242

446

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky reveal the text of the conversations from the AI box escape experiment by the end of 2030?

May 27, 5:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

12.28%chance

232201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2673

374

Will an Indian science fiction film make a billion dollars at the global box office this decade?

Aug 1, 4:44 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

16.29%chance

301318

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1444

853

Will any ballot boxes or mail in ballots be confiscated in the 2026 midterms?

Sep 26, 1:46 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

44.05%chance

141025

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1127

887

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear in a movie that grosses over $20M at the box office before 2028?

Jul 13, 11:47 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

17.56%chance

30991

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

948

Will I let the AI out of the box?

Nov 23, 4:58 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

25.39%chance

21701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

738

Will the value of any of the cards printed in the Magic: 30th Anniversary set exceed the price of an MSRP sealed booster box by the end of 2027?

Oct 4, 5:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74%chance

10233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1123

930

Strong consensus among game theorists at the beginning of 2040 will be that one-boxing in Newcomb’s paradox is optimal.

Mar 25, 3:16 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

35.83%chance

12105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

965

When will Vikram provide the communication boxes?

Feb 4, 8:18 PMDec 31, 8:18 PM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

952

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