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Prediction markets for The Box

Will the American Boxing Revival Act of 2025 (ABRA) be signed into law by July 4, 2026.

Jul 28, 7:15 PMJul 4, 11:59 PM

8.71%chance

103263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3238

309

Will The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act make over $100 million at the worldwide box office?

Jun 1, 3:09 AMJul 1, 9:59 AM

8.39%chance

172823

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3304

303

Will Jake Paul and Logan Paul compete against one another in a boxing match before the end of 2026?

Jul 28, 1:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.19%chance

142481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1900

761

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky reveal the text of the conversations from the AI box escape experiment by the end of 2030?

May 27, 5:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

11.88%chance

232149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2724

367

Will an Indian science fiction film make a billion dollars at the global box office this decade?

Aug 1, 4:44 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

16.29%chance

301318

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1444

853

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear in a movie that grosses over $20M at the box office before 2028?

Jul 13, 11:47 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

18.39%chance

29941

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

959

Will I let the AI out of the box?

Nov 23, 4:58 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

25.39%chance

21701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

738

Will Anthony Joshua and Logan Paul compete against one another in a boxing match before the end of 2027

Dec 25, 3:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.35%chance

3476

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1446

691

Will the value of any of the cards printed in the Magic: 30th Anniversary set exceed the price of an MSRP sealed booster box by the end of 2027?

Oct 4, 5:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74%chance

10233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1123

930

Strong consensus among game theorists at the beginning of 2040 will be that one-boxing in Newcomb’s paradox is optimal.

Mar 25, 3:16 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

35.83%chance

12105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

965

When will Vikram provide the communication boxes?

Feb 4, 8:18 PMDec 31, 8:18 PM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

952

Will "Foom & Doom 1: “Brain in a box in a basement”" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 24, 6:57 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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