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Prediction markets for The Box

Will the upcoming Minecraft movie make over a billion dollars at the worldwide box office?

Dec 17, 9:03 PMDec 25, 7:59 AM

0.92%chance

5631106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10277

94

Will one of the GLP agonist drugs (eg Semaglutude/Wegovy Tirzepatide/Mounjaro) have a black box warning by 2025

Jul 2, 7:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.87%chance

213474

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3699

434

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky reveal the text of the conversations from the AI box escape experiment by the end of 2030?

May 27, 5:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

11.88%chance

232149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2724

367

Will an Indian science fiction film make a billion dollars at the global box office this decade?

Aug 1, 4:44 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

15.97%chance

281263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1470

848

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear in a movie that grosses over $20M at the box office before 2028?

Jul 13, 11:47 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

18.39%chance

29941

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

959

Will I let the AI out of the box?

Nov 23, 4:58 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

25.39%chance

21701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

738

Will Jake Paul and Logan Paul compete against one another in a boxing match before the end of 2026?

Jul 28, 1:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.35%chance

11381

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

954

Will the value of any of the cards printed in the Magic: 30th Anniversary set exceed the price of an MSRP sealed booster box by the end of 2027?

Oct 4, 5:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74%chance

10233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1123

930

Strong consensus among game theorists at the beginning of 2040 will be that one-boxing in Newcomb’s paradox is optimal.

Mar 25, 3:16 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

35.83%chance

12105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

965

Will the American Boxing Revival Act of 2025 (ABRA) be signed into law by July 4, 2026.

Jul 28, 7:15 PMJul 4, 11:59 PM

52.46%chance

271

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

952

Will "Foom & Doom 1: “Brain in a box in a basement”" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 24, 6:57 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Why White-Box Redteaming Makes Me Feel Weird" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 3, 5:51 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.25%chance

13

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

983

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