The Plains News

NO

I visit Times Square

A friend from [city] comes to NYC and I see them

I explore the High Line

At least 20 people I don't know bet on non-meta propositions on this market

I attend an OBNYC meetup

I visit the New York Public Library

I visit the Empire State Building

I see a Broadway show

I visit the Statue of Liberty

I am at least moderately homesick

I meet someone I've met before at [company]

I see a rat (rattus norvegicus)

I eat a new york bagel

At least 50 people I don't know bet on non-meta propositions on this market

I explore Central Park

I really like the city

I gain the desire to move to NYC

I see a horse

I visit the Met

I visit the MoMA

I gain a romantic interest

I cry at some point

I get a good intuition for what a Kan extension is

I start using at least one "New York ism" in my regular speech

I lose 5 lbs

I visit the Guggenheim Museum

I visit the American Museum of Natural History

I kiss someone

I wish I had spent more time doing tourist-y things

I witness a man arguing passionately with no one

I meet someone I think is smarter than anyone I have ever met before

Someone signs up primarily to bet in this market

I see at least 4 protests

At least 100 people I don't know bet on non-meta propositions on this market

I resolve a proposition in this market incorrectly

I eat at least 10 meals of plain white rice

My opinion of the United States changes significantly in valence

I eat a bagel with lox and cream cheese from Russ & Daughters

I hail a cab

I gain at least 5lbs of weight

I eat something from a street cart that costs less than $5

I play chess in a park

I actively participate in or actively attend a political rally or political protest

I attend a pride parade

I explore Coney Island

I hail a cab in a way that could plausibly be mistaken for a nazi salute

I regret making this market

I hear someone say "I'm walkin' here!" unironically

I witness a violent crime

Other

ANTE: Stake on this to subsidize the market.

*Markdown* formatting in comments and elsewhere

The ability to look for related markets in the API.

Linkable Comments

Spoiler tags to hide markets about in progress fiction

Ability to optionally privately enter your expectation of outcome when making a purchase, for the purpose of having a personal calibration curve. Justification: I find that making calibration curves for myself is fun and helps improve my forecasting, and that my calibration curve gets less accurate after a few months if I stop practicing. But the practice takes effort, which could be piggy-backed on the forecasting activity of participating in prediction markets for less effort than doing it seperately.

Ability to include a short message when resolving a market

Reminders. Allow users to set a custom reminder to return to a market.

Merge duplicate Answers for multiple Answer Questions https://manifold.markets/Honourary/will-manifold-markets-add-a-merge-f

Ability to tip users M$ for helpful comments.

Ability to short multiple choice answers

Retroactively close a market, undoing bets after the new close time. (Reward predictions before the events happened, not betting really quickly after hearing the news.)

Resolve market to probabilities other than market probabilities. Useful for betting on outcomes of other markets.

Short answers on free response questions

Graph showing the pool size of a market over time

A meta-market. Simple exchange that lets you place a bid/sell order for shares of whatever market.

Set a time to stop allowing creation of new free response answers separately from the market close time

We need numerical range questions. Many topics are way more informative when expressed that way, over a Yes No.

Ability to attach (private) personal notes to other users (e.g. to keep track of who you've observed be a good market resolver)

A "poll" category of market. You can buy as many votes as you want but the payout is unrelated to which answer wins. (Could be zero, could reverse the system so bettors get 4% and the creator gets the balance, or something else.)

Reducing the number of personal questions (eg. "Will I do ...")

Market Indicies, Allowing Multiple Markets to Be Combined Into One and Automatically Weighted with Drag and Drop Type Feature

Show currently placed on market overviews, like https://manifold.markets/markets (it is easy to forget where loans were used)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to not have ability to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

Allow users to edit their comments

In "Your Trades", show each market's M$ pool

Reduced fees for long horizon markets to increase trading volume.

Upload photos with comments. Useful for proof of results and other fun things.

I would like there to be a feature that integrates something like an RSS feed. If key words or phrases about specific event occurs, trading is suspended until the market is either resolved or the RSS notification is tagged as a false positive. As what often happens, the gains of many bettors are wiped out by slow resolutions of markets.

Zoom on the chart

Statements

Kelly

The ability to subsidize markets, putting up money to enhance liquidity and encourage participation, without taking a particular side of the bet. (The thing that the ANTE option on this market is trying to do, just in a more formal and less ad-hoc way, which would also work for YES/NO markets.)

Aggregate your own trades in timeline view (avoid long list).

Earn interest on M$ tied up in long time horizon bets.

Trade fractional mana

When creating a free answer market, add a starting set of answers without betting.

Combinatorial Prediction Markets

Ability to delete comments.

Load pages faster (Android mobile).

More explanation for people who don't know anything about prediction markets.

Mechanism for making decisions (built-in bundle of conditional markets?) with better incentives for betters (not beauty contest)

Filter OUT market categories on the homepage.

Private messages to users

Ability to select multiple categories of markets on the home page.

Trusted users can add category tags to markets that aren't their own

User create their own currency

Zen mode: Hide the probabilities from the user until they decide to buy.

Market Scanner (like stock screeners)

NO

YES

NO

YES

Waymo

Other

Tesla

Uber

Bolt

NO

YES

YES

YES