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Prediction markets for The Wharf

Will SpaceX put their HLS lander on the Moon by end of 2025?

Dec 5, 8:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

2112106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12574

521

Will Falcon boosters have a longer run of sucessful landings than 267?

Aug 31, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.39%chance

91330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1190

840

How many flights to orbit will Falcon 9 have made by the time it retires?

Mar 19, 2:02 PMMar 19, 11:59 PM

3491

OptionProbability

Fewer than 1300

Fewer than 1100

Fewer than 900

Fewer than 700

Fewer than 500

80

76

66

10

1

In which year will Starship first launch with 50 or more people on board?

Feb 29, 8:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7466

OptionProbability

2030 or earlier

2034

2036

2037

Later than 2040 or never

2033

2035

2031

2032

2038

2039

2040

29

8

8

8

8

7

7

6

5

4

4

4

Will there be off-Earth habitable volume totalling one cubic kilometre by 2050?

Jan 31, 3:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

41.73%chance

4259

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1182

846

Which of these Transport for London projects will be completed before the end of 2040?

Mar 23, 9:06 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

6256

OptionProbability

West London Orbital

Elizabeth line extension to Ebbsfleet

Bakerloo line extension to Lewisham

Thames Wharf DLR station

DLR extension to Thamesmead

Elizabeth line extension to Staines

Sutton Link tram line

Surrey Canal Road Overground station

Croxley Rail Link

Northern line extension to Clapham Junction

Castle Green Overground station

Central line extension to Harlow

Victoria line extension to Herne Hill

Crossrail 2

76

68

66

66

56

50

50

50

38

36

24

20

20

6

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