OptionProbability
Saxony
Thuringia
Brandenburg
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
Saxony-Anhalt
Berlin
Saarland
Hamburg
North Rhine-Westphalia
Lower Saxony
Hesse
Bremen
Rhineland-Palatinate
Schleswig-Holstein
Baden-Württemberg
Bavaria
100
98
80
77
58
51
38
37
31
20
19
16
13
5
2
No Bundestag decision before 2069
40
28
8
4
3
1
0
Linke
SPD
AfD
CDU
FDP
BSW
Grüne
89
59
47
41
34
30
Mario Voigt
Other
No one before 2031
Björn Höcke
24
21
AfD + BSW
None by 2031
CDU + SPD
CDU + BSW + SPD
CDU + Left + BSW
Left + SPD + Greens
AfD alone
CDU + SPD + Greens
Left + BSW + SPD
AfD + CDU
CDU + Left + SPD
11
10
9
7
6
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