Treasury News

Treasury shuts off Congressionally authorized payments to Department of Education by December 31, 2025

Feb 4, 4:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.15%chance

3235132

OptionVotes

YES

25336

2901

Will Bitcoin become US Treasury reserve asset in 2025?

Jul 22, 1:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2.33%chance

5821796

OptionVotes

YES

6475

154

Will Bitcoin become US Treasury reserve asset by 2030?

Jul 22, 10:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.35%chance

3110561

OptionVotes

YES

2010

1984

10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.5%+ on 12/31/2025?

May 13, 12:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.54%chance

135515

OptionVotes

YES

3501

286

Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029

Feb 11, 12:05 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

20.84%chance

274602

OptionVotes

YES

1949

513

Impeach the Judge who blocked DOGE from accessing U.S. Treasury records? How far will this go?

Feb 9, 9:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

213255

OptionProbability

Initiation and Investigation: A member or committee of the House of Representatives begins impeachment proceedings. The House Judiciary Committee investigates the allegations of misconduct

Charges: If the committee finds sufficient evidence, it acts as a prosecutor and brings charges against the judge.

The U.S. Court of Appeals or the Supreme Court overturns Judge Engelmayer's ruling to block Executive cabinet and staffers from accessing U.S. Treasury records, and no impeachment proceedings are initiated by May 9, 2025.

House Votes YES to Impeach: The entire House of Representatives votes on the impeachment. A simple majority is required to impeach the judge.

Senate Trial and Removal: If impeached, the case is referred to the Senate for a trial. A two-thirds majority vote in the Senate is required to convict and remove the judge from office.

100

US Treasury announces new capital controls before May 22, 2026

Apr 22, 11:17 PMMay 22, 11:59 PM

24.4%chance

91398

OptionVotes

YES

1760

568

Will the 10 Year Treasury Yield at closing on 12/31/2025 be 4% or higher?

Jan 2, 1:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.46%chance

121350

OptionVotes

YES

154

Will 30-year treasury yields go above 7% at any point before 2027?

Jan 16, 9:02 PMJan 5, 10:59 PM

25.23%chance

61178

OptionVotes

YES

1722

581

US 10-year treasury trades above 7% before 2026

Jul 7, 1:32 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

5.8%chance

111095

OptionVotes

YES

413

When will the 10-year (US) Treasury yield reach 5 per cent?

Jun 29, 7:58 PMJul 1, 7:56 PM

9981

OptionProbability

July 1, 2026 or after, or never

Jan 1 - June 30 (2026)

June 29 - Sep 30 (2025)

Oct 1 - Dec 31 (2025)

Will the ten year treasury yield on December 16, 2025 be below 4%?

Nov 1, 6:36 PMDec 16, 11:59 PM

42.14%chance

7444

OptionVotes

YES

1203

882

Treasury News

Prediction markets for Treasury

Prediction markets for Treasury

Prediction markets for Treasury

Treasury shuts off Congressionally authorized payments to Department of Education by December 31, 2025

Will Bitcoin become US Treasury reserve asset in 2025?

Will Bitcoin become US Treasury reserve asset by 2030?

10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.5%+ on 12/31/2025?

Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029

Impeach the Judge who blocked DOGE from accessing U.S. Treasury records? How far will this go?

US Treasury announces new capital controls before May 22, 2026

Will the 10 Year Treasury Yield at closing on 12/31/2025 be 4% or higher?

Will 30-year treasury yields go above 7% at any point before 2027?

US 10-year treasury trades above 7% before 2026

When will the 10-year (US) Treasury yield reach 5 per cent?

Will the ten year treasury yield on December 16, 2025 be below 4%?

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