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Prediction markets for Treasury

Will Bitcoin become US Treasury reserve asset by 2030?

Jul 22, 10:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.74%chance

3210661

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2084

1902

Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029

Feb 11, 12:05 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

15.96%chance

275012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2295

436

Will the US unilaterally restructure outstanding Treasury debt (coupon, maturity, swap) by December 31, 2030?

May 11, 2:28 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

3.6%chance

52271

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10057

8328

Will 30-year treasury yields go above 7% at any point before 2027?

Jan 16, 9:02 PMJan 5, 10:59 PM

25.23%chance

61178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1722

581

Will the US treasury "be put on the blockchain" by the end of 2026?

Feb 3, 12:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.85%chance

151093

OptionVotes

YES

NO

443

23

10 Year Treasury Yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026?

Jan 3, 2:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.51%chance

11707

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1291

775

Will 10-year treasury yields in 2032 be higher than 3.5%?

May 27, 12:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

79.29%chance

15516

OptionVotes

NO

YES

382

139

10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.5%+ on 12/31/2026?

Jan 3, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.38%chance

4408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

823

30-year Treasury yield hits 5.6% during Trump's second term?

May 30, 7:20 PMJan 19, 11:59 AM

45.76%chance

11377

OptionVotes

NO

YES

544

436

10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.0%+ on 12/31/2026?

Jan 3, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.45%chance

6329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1093

915

Lowest 30 year treasury yield during 2023-2049?

Sep 3, 3:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10261

OptionProbability

2.5-3%

2-2.5%

3-3.5%

Over 3.5%

1.5-2%

under 1.5%

28

19

19

19

10

5

Will the US Treasury issue a new General License authorizing broad oil operations in Venezuela in 2026?

Jan 3, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.87%chance

449

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

75

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