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Top stories

Texas Judge Allows Antitrust Case on BlackRock Climate Policies to Move Forward

Authors

5

1 day ago

Prediction markets for Tyler

Will May 2024 be remembered as the month 'AI safety movement died' as per Tyler Cowen?

May 21, 12:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4%chance

6411797

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4902

204

Scott Alexander & Tyler Cowen podcast in 2025?

Jun 2, 4:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.4%chance

194985

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2935

341

Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?

Oct 23, 11:37 PMOct 24, 10:59 PM

17.33%chance

181998

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2184

458

When will Tyler Cowen have David Grusch as the guest on an episode of Conversations with Tyler?

Nov 29, 3:17 PMDec 6, 3:59 PM

61519

OptionProbability

Other

1Q 2025

4Q 2024

1Q 2024

3Q 2024

3Q 2023

2Q 2024

41

34

19

2

2

1

1

Tyler Cowen's claims about reading and travel continue to be accepted through mid 2028

Dec 18, 4:41 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

97.57%chance

20950

OptionVotes

NO

YES

909

49

Will Tyler Cowen create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.11%chance

15650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1403

844

Tyler Cowen thinks Claude 3 meets some definitions of AGI. Five years from now, will Claude be considered an early AGI?

Mar 7, 12:54 PMMar 8, 4:59 AM

8.28%chance

10635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

731

160

Will mickey be featured in a Dr Who episode with the regenerated rose Tyler by the end of 2026?

Jun 1, 7:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.09%chance

3368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

432

23

Will a YuGiOh card sell for a record breaking price by Jan 1st 2027? (Current: $311,211 for Tyler the Great Warrior)

Nov 28, 10:06 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

62.79%chance

16231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

985

Will Tyler Arnold (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 20, 1:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18%chance

5191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

112

Will Tyler Cowen get diagnosed with plasticosis by EOY2039?

Sep 21, 5:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.21%chance

1101

OptionVotes

YES

NO

199

50

Does the shortest possible universal program contain Tyler Cowen in it?

Sep 18, 7:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65%chance

221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

76

Latest stories

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Aug 1, 2025
Aug 1, 2025
Law
Climate
Texas
Texas Judge Allows Antitrust Case on BlackRock Climate Policies to Move Forward
Authors
5
1 day ago

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