OptionVotes
YES
NO
1028
973
OptionProbability
UAE do not win all three Grand Tour GCs
35 or more WorldTour victories
Rune Herregodts wins a WorldTour race
Antonio Morgado wins a Grand Tour stage
Pogacar wins Tour de France, Vuelta a Espana, and WC road race
Antonio Morgado wins a cobbled classic
Pablo Torres rides the Giro and drops/appears stronger than Juan Ayuso on a mountain stage
Pogacar will attack on the Cipressa and win Milan-San Remo
100
13
7
2
0
Have been born after the first plane was hijacked on 9/11
Be a President or other kind of non-royal, non-coup Head of State
Be a man (cis or trans)
Take office on or before 2034-03-29 (ten years from market creation)
Be a Prime Minister, meaning a head of government, not head of state, most often elected by the legislature
Be considered broadly left-wing in their country
Be a monarch or a monarch's representative/regent
Have been married
Have been in custody
Rule a country that's in the bottom 10% by area
Rule an African country
Rule a country with same-sex marriage
Rule a country that's not a UN member as of market creation
Not rule by heredity, and be related to someone who is or was also a state leader during their lifetime
Come to power as the result of a coup
Be out as LGBTQIA+
Have used a prediction market
84
71
67
57
54
52
50
47
46
43
38
29
25
24
21
9
140
144
69
116
70
