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Top stories

Finland’s President Stubb Says Trump Growing Impatient With Putin Over Ukraine Peace Delays, Pressures Europe on Defense

US Foreign Policy

Finland’s President Stubb Says Trump Growing Impatient With Putin Over Ukraine Peace Delays, Pressures Europe on Defense

Authors

5

4 months ago

Exxon Mobil, Led by Neil Chapman, Holds Secret Talks With Rosneft’s Igor Sechin on Sakhalin-1 Return Amid Ukraine Peace Process Involving Trump and Putin

Exxon Mobil, Led by Neil Chapman, Holds Secret Talks With Rosneft’s Igor Sechin on Sakhalin-1 Return Amid Ukraine Peace Process Involving Trump and Putin

Authors

27

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Ukraine conflict

Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?

Jan 22, 8:13 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.38%chance

183167202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

37000

1401

Will the Ukraine war enter a state of "frozen conflict" by EOY 2025?

Feb 23, 8:56 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

5.46%chance

425816

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4099

513

Will the Russia Ukraine conflict reach a conclusion by the end of 2026?

Mar 13, 5:32 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

44.92%chance

324756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

318

193

Will the Russia Ukraine conflict reach a conclusion by the end of 2025?

Mar 13, 5:31 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

4.21%chance

494202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1176

60

Will the Ukraine conflict end up in a demilitarized zone (DMZ) [like Korea] by end of 2025?

Aug 10, 8:05 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.48%chance

332247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1746

814

Will the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 be related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

Oct 10, 9:09 AMNov 18, 4:59 AM

11.69%chance

141400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

275

36

When will the Ukraine war enter a state of "frozen conflict” or the ceasefire agreement is signed?

May 5, 8:51 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

91036

OptionProbability

2025.8-2025.9

2025.9-2026

2025.6-2025.7

2025.5-2025.6

2025.7-2025.8

2025.1-2025.2

2025.2-2025.3

2025.3-2025.4

2025.4-2025.5

2025-2025.1

2024.5-2024.6

2024.6-2024.7

2024.7-2024.8

2024.8-2024.9

2024.9-2025

2026-2026.1

2026.1-2026.2

2026.2-2026.3

2026.3-2026.4

2026.4-2026.5

2026.5-2026.6

2026.6-2026.7

2026.7-2026.8

2026.8-2026.9

2026.9-2027

2027-2027.1

2027.1-2027.2

2027.2-2027.3

2027.3-2027.4

2027.4-2027.5

2027.5-2027.6

2027.6-2027.7

2027.7-2027.8

2027.8-2027.9

2027.9-2028

2028-2028.1

2028.1-2028.2

2028.2-2028.3

2028.3-2028.4

2028.4-2028.5

2028.5-2028.6

2028.6-2028.7

2028.7-2028.8

2028.8-2028.9

2028.9-2029

2029-2029.1

2029.1-2029.2

2029.2-2029.3

2029.3-2029.4

2029.4-2029.5

25

25

14

8

8

4

4

4

4

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Climate Manipulating Weapons be Used in the Russian / Ukraine Conflict?

May 7, 5:35 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

14.39%chance

17855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

906

Ukraine and Russia conflict ends within 2025

Nov 8, 8:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4.75%chance

27832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

448

22

When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict? [METACULUS]

Oct 11, 5:04 PMJan 30, 11:59 PM

4307

OptionProbability

By 2030-01-01

By 2028-01-01

By 2027-01-01

59

50

42

End of Russian-Ukraine conflict in 2026?

Oct 28, 8:38 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

42.31%chance

655

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117

86

Which conflict poses a greater threat to US national security: Ukraine or Israel?

Nov 1, 5:05 PM

1030

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