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Prediction markets for US government

Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?

Sep 19, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

364508051

OptionProbability

R Pres, D Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta

R President, D Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta

D President, R Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, R House

D President, R Senate, D House

58

34

7

1

0

0

0

0

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.65%chance

9122191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14513

8421

Will the US Government lose its monopoly on violence within its borders before 2035?

Jun 16, 5:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.63%chance

7720024

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2468

1439

US government uses live ammunition on protestors before end of presidential term?

Jun 10, 1:45 AMJan 19, 11:59 PM

30.83%chance

8013373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1498

668

Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.23%chance

314143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1311

763

US government builds first AGI-level system?

Nov 20, 5:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.61%chance

253639

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2091

478

Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030?

Jun 12, 7:30 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.81%chance

253167

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2077

481

If Trump wins, will the US government enact legislation that significantly slows down AI progress?

Mar 9, 11:00 PMNov 3, 10:59 PM

16.25%chance

222083

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1723

873

Will OpenAI receive a bailout from the US government by the end of 2028?

Nov 3, 4:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.94%chance

151955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1494

669

Will the US government introduce any domestic restrictions on open-weight LLMs by EOY 2026?

Jun 13, 9:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.25%chance

191572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1720

581

Will the US Government issue 50-year bonds before 2030?

May 15, 1:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.99%chance

15582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

857

US government loses more than $50 million in cryptocurrency by end of 2028

Mar 16, 10:33 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

45.42%chance

5298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

912

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