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Prediction markets for US Gulf

Will Iran actually participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Mar 1, 2:59 PMJun 10, 11:59 PM

35.58%chance

9522076

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1514

955

Does the US take control of Kharg Island (Iran) with boots on the ground even just for an hour before ... (UTC)?

Mar 8, 5:18 PMDec 31, 5:13 PM

233718

OptionProbability

Before 2027

Before June 2026

Before May 2026

Before April 2026

54

53

42

16

Will Iran officially announce a blockade/closure of the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 consecutive hours by July 2026

Feb 2, 11:37 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

74.48%chance

313641

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

936

Will the US attempt to seize or carry out a major strike on the oil infrastructure on Kharg Island before April 15, 2026

Mar 17, 4:10 AMApr 14, 11:59 PM

55%chance

281671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

Will 10 or more desalination plants in the Middle East be attacked before the end of April?

Mar 24, 5:11 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

10.04%chance

151188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

299

33

Will the US try to capture or blockade kharg island before end of March?

Mar 13, 9:45 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

34.19%chance

18991

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

What will occur first, public discourse of aliens, Half life 3,legal cannabis (US), elder scrolls 6, Gulf stream fails

Jul 31, 9:18 PMJun 30, 3:59 AM

9231

OptionProbability

elder scrolls 6

Gulf stream fails

federally legal cannabis

Half life 3

Aliens

46

23

20

8

2

Will Crude oil supply impact due to Persian Gulf military conflict exceed 10 million barrels/day on May 31, 2026?

Mar 4, 12:04 PMMay 31, 12:04 PM

60.56%chance

6194

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

81

Will US ground troops physically enter Iranian territory by May 1, 2026?

Mar 26, 11:55 AMMay 1, 11:59 PM

56.59%chance

6178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

279

92

Will the US, Israel and/or one of the non-Iranian Gulf states occupy Larak Island (Iran) before June 1 2026?

Mar 26, 4:58 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

37%chance

4172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Will Iran sign a peace deal with the middle east countries

Mar 4, 7:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

4115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

Will any gulf-state make a side-deal with Iran to avoid further attacks?

Mar 16, 12:06 PMJan 1, 11:41 AM

39%chance

897

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

80

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