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Prediction markets for US Republican

Will a Republican win in the following US Senate 2026 elections?

Aug 19, 9:50 PMNov 4, 4:59 AM

9738137

OptionProbability

West Virginia

Wyoming

Tennessee

Alabama

Idaho

Mississippi

Oklahoma

South Dakota

Arkansas

Louisiana

Kentucky

Montana

Kansas

South Carolina

Florida (Special)

Nebraska

Texas

Iowa

Alaska

Ohio (Special)

Maine

Michigan

Georgia

North Carolina

New Hampshire

New Jersey

Minnesota

Illinois

Virginia

Delaware

New Mexico

Colorado

Oregon

Rhode Island

Massachusetts

98

98

97

96

96

96

96

95

94

94

93

93

89

87

80

66

61

58

51

50

29

20

16

15

10

8

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

3

2

Will Donald Trump be the Republican party nominee in the 2028 US presidential election?

Mar 11, 4:59 PMJun 7, 6:59 AM

2.36%chance

5313623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4937

756

If the Republican party wins the 2024 US election, will Ukraine recover all its territory by Feb 2029?

Sep 19, 4:22 PMMar 1, 7:59 PM

5%chance

165443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4181

490

Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of December 2026?

Dec 16, 2:30 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.99%chance

293990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3149

368

Will a Republican win the US Senate special election in Florida in 2026?

Nov 12, 8:18 PMNov 11, 1:29 PM

80.33%chance

213897

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2021

495

The first female US president will be Republican

Nov 5, 12:50 AMNov 1, 10:59 PM

45.99%chance

553802

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

755

Republicans win a 2026 US Senate election in a state Kamala won?(excluding maine)

Jan 24, 6:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.59%chance

102318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2283

1569

Will Elon Musk endorse a republican candidate in the next US presidential election?

Jun 5, 8:05 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

58.36%chance

12833

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1184

845

Will either Democratic or Republican party be revealed to have used LLMs for voter prediction in the 2028 US elections?

Apr 10, 5:41 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

61.26%chance

42815

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1055

1010

Conditional on the next US President being Republican, will China invade Taiwan during the next presidential term?

Nov 27, 6:45 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

32.46%chance

15588

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

828

If a Republican is elected POTUS in 2024, will the US send troops into Mexico before EOY 2028?

Aug 30, 8:50 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

16.94%chance

16562

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

727

Will the US have a President not nominated by either Republican or Democratic party by 2050?

Feb 5, 12:33 PMFeb 5, 7:59 PM

15.74%chance

14338

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

827

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