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Prediction markets for US Republican

Will Donald Trump be the Republican party nominee in the 2028 US presidential election?

Mar 11, 4:59 PMJun 7, 6:59 AM

2.05%chance

5313069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5610

741

If the Republican party wins the 2024 US election, will Ukraine recover all its territory by Feb 2029?

Sep 19, 4:22 PMMar 1, 7:59 PM

4.86%chance

155438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4269

486

Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of December 2026?

Dec 16, 2:30 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.99%chance

293990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3149

368

The first female US president will be Republican

Nov 5, 12:50 AMNov 1, 10:59 PM

47.68%chance

553770

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1174

723

Will a Republican win the US Senate special election in Florida in 2026?

Nov 12, 8:18 PMNov 11, 1:29 PM

80.95%chance

163300

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2061

485

Will either Democratic or Republican party be revealed to have used LLMs for voter prediction in the 2028 US elections?

Apr 10, 5:41 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

61.26%chance

42815

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1055

1010

Will Elon Musk endorse a republican candidate in the next US presidential election?

Jun 5, 8:05 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

59.77%chance

12798

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1219

820

Republicans win a 2026 US Senate election in a state Kamala won?

Jan 24, 6:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.98%chance

12644

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1028

937

Conditional on the next US President being Republican, will China invade Taiwan during the next presidential term?

Nov 27, 6:45 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

32.46%chance

15588

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

828

If a Republican is elected POTUS in 2024, will the US send troops into Mexico before EOY 2028?

Aug 30, 8:50 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

13.55%chance

13436

OptionVotes

NO

YES

984

915

Will the US have a President not nominated by either Republican or Democratic party by 2050?

Feb 5, 12:33 PMFeb 5, 7:59 PM

15.45%chance

13335

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

843

What % of the vote will the Republican get in these 2026 US Senate races?(resolves in range)

Jan 25, 8:16 AMNov 4, 11:59 PM

235

OptionProbability

Kentucky (55% to 65%)

Ohio (45% to 55%)

Maine (40% to 50%)

Georgia (40% to 50%)

New Hampshire (35% to 45%)

Minnesota (40% to 50%)

50

50

48

48

42

39

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