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Prediction markets for US Republican

Will Donald Trump be the Republican party nominee in the 2028 US presidential election?

Mar 11, 4:59 PMJun 7, 6:59 AM

2.4%chance

5514269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4876

757

Will a Republican win the US Senate special election in Florida in 2026?

Nov 12, 8:18 PMNov 11, 1:29 PM

88%chance

427834

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2708

369

If the Republican party wins the 2024 US election, will Ukraine recover all its territory by Feb 2029?

Sep 19, 4:22 PMMar 1, 7:59 PM

8.83%chance

166880

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2744

592

Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of December 2026?

Dec 16, 2:30 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.99%chance

293990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3149

368

The first female US president will be Republican

Nov 5, 12:50 AMNov 1, 10:59 PM

45.99%chance

553802

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

755

What will be the Republican-Democrat balance of US Supreme Court justices by the 2029 inauguration?

Jan 27, 4:01 AMJan 21, 6:59 AM

113789

OptionProbability

6-3 (balance as of 2024)

7-2

8-1

9-0

Other

5-4 or lower

73

15

5

3

3

1

Republicans win 2028 US Presidential Election?

Aug 1, 8:28 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.93%chance

232113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

832

Conditional on the next US President being Republican, will China invade Taiwan during the next presidential term?

Nov 27, 6:45 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

23.04%chance

171243

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1168

932

Will Elon Musk endorse a republican candidate in the next US presidential election?

Jun 5, 8:05 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

60.35%chance

12883

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1234

811

Will either Democratic or Republican party be revealed to have used LLMs for voter prediction in the 2028 US elections?

Apr 10, 5:41 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

61.26%chance

42815

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1055

1010

If a Republican is elected POTUS in 2024, will the US send troops into Mexico before EOY 2028?

Aug 30, 8:50 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

16.94%chance

16562

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

727

Will the US have a President not nominated by either Republican or Democratic party by 2050?

Feb 5, 12:33 PMFeb 5, 7:59 PM

15.74%chance

14338

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

827

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