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Prediction markets for US SEC

Will Donald Trump be ranked as the worst US President by the end of his second term according to CSPAN's Survey?

Mar 10, 3:02 AMMar 31, 3:59 PM

45%chance

10318710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

251

132

Will Donald Trump resign as US President during his second term?

Nov 6, 6:57 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

4.2%chance

3716315

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4777

209

Will the US acquire new territory during Trump’s second term?

Dec 24, 11:52 PMJan 21, 6:59 AM

18%chance

5710919

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2196

482

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

51.05%chance

4310153

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10938

8979

US passes bill to move President's Day to day after Super Bowl During Trump's Second Term

Feb 14, 9:15 PMJan 21, 1:00 AM

9.98%chance

103546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3007

336

Will JD Vance resign as US Vice President during Trump's second term?

Nov 6, 7:39 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

12.41%chance

223403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2657

376

As of November 2028, will any of the current 50 US states attempt to secede from the Union.

Dec 28, 1:16 PMNov 1, 10:59 AM

15.55%chance

253186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

947

Will any US state secede before 2050?

Feb 20, 6:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.58%chance

262101

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10197

8675

Will US fertility rise above 1.7 at any time during Trump’s second term?

Dec 25, 5:02 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

12.78%chance

201940

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2612

383

Will China have its first female General Secretary before the US has its first female President?

Apr 8, 1:58 PMAug 8, 9:59 PM

12.53%chance

321169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1634

846

If AI does not wipe us out by 2033, will there be continued progress in the AI sector?

Aug 18, 8:51 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

78.97%chance

17335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

946

Will we have AGI before the US makes any major changes to Social Security?

Apr 5, 12:36 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

45.11%chance

12267

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

974

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