OptionProbability
Flat tire
Hitch a lift
Ride through a thunderstorm
fall off the bike
Make use of the WarmShowers network
Exceed a speed of 35mph
Have sex while on tour
Cycle >65 miles in one day
Learn interesting lore from a local in at least one place you pass through
Get sunburnt
Be chased by a dog
Receive a gift from someone you meet along the way [not including social gestures, see comments]
Someone you meet irl invites you to stay at their home (including camping on their property)
Encounter snow (via active precipitation OR unmelted on side of road)
rained on
Broken spoke
Encounter road closure
See a snake
someone honks at you (from a car, while on your bicycle)
Someone shouts encouragement from a vehicle
See a cat with 3+ kittens
Notice a custom license plate that you find funny
Eat more than 5,000 kcals in a single day
Try a new food and love it!
make it all the way to the Atlantic with at least 90% of the distance covered by bike/foot
Someone shouts verbal abuse from a vehicle
experience temperatures above 100°F (38°C)
Meet an online friend IRL
End the trip at a lower weight than you started (<65kg)
Try a new food and hate it!
Make it to the end without any further broken spokes
Poop somewhere that isn’t a toilet or portapotty
Three or more flat tires
Cycle >110 miles in one day
Cry
Meet a manifold user IRL (who I haven't met before)
Have animals access your food while camping
get invited to someone's church
Broken chain
Something that is not the whole bike gets stolen (wheel, lights, money, phone, etc)
3 people you meet join Manifold to participate in this market
End the trip at a higher weight than you started (>65kg)
Observe, divert route or delay because of a tornado
Divert or delay route due to wildfire and/or poor air quality due to smoke
See a bear
Someone you meet joins Manifold to bet on this market and is still active on the site (betting 3+ days/week) when all options resolve
10 or more flat tires (current running total: 5)
Get rash from poison oak or poison ivy
Get ill enough that you skip a day.
Get pulled over / stopped by police [while on bicycle]
Have bike stolen
Be hit by an automobile
Someone asks if you know Prince Harry
Buy a new bike
100
95
92
82
81
79
78
75
70
69
67
66
62
61
45
44
40
36
27
24
23
22
21
20
19
17
13
11
7