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OptionProbability
China launches military drills around Taiwan
Warnings from Western intelligence agencies about Chinese invasion preparations
Submarine cables around Taiwan are damaged
China engages in a partial/total naval blockade of Taiwan
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Taiwan's military
A western think-tank warns about a Chinese naval build-up
Major cyberattack on Taiwanese infrastructure
At least one western country charters a fight to evacuate its citizens from Taiwan
China shoots down a Taiwanese aircraft
At least one western country tells its citizens to leave China
A Chinese entity releases a frontier AI model
Taiwan revokes visa of pro-Beijing influencer
Taiwan shoots down a Chinese aircraft
China issues new warning to its citizens about travelling to the US
China declares a no-fly zone over Taiwan
China switches its industrial overcapacity over to military production
China fires missiles/rockets/artillery/railguns over Taiwan
A military ship sinks in the Pacific in suspicious circumstances (or due to clear evidence of hostile action)
Reports that China is building new concentration camps
A popular Chinese movie is released containing a scene with an amphibious assault
Chinese government tells large numbers of its citizens to return to China
Chinese soldiers are involved in active combat outside of Chinese territory (excluding UN peacekeeping)
A US company has a market cap of at least 5 trillion dollars at any point in the 12-month window
Significant damage to low-earth orbit satellites (compared to per-satellite damage level in 2024) -- including but not limited to hostile action and kessler syndrome
Reports of drone activity over US military bases in the Pacific
Major cyberattack on Japanese infrastructure
A Taiwanese politician dies in suspicious circumstances
Major cyberattack on South Korean infrastructure
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in the US military
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Japan's military
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in South Korea's military
the US implements tariffs of at least 25% on Taiwanese semiconductors (implemented at any point in the 12-month window)
A US semiconductor facility is damaged in a fire/explosion or act of sabotage
At least three civilian flights to Taiwan are diverted to land in China
Significant constitutional crisis in the US
Nasdaq is at 60% of its previous peak at any time in the 12-month period
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Australia's military
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in India's military
A civilian ship sinks in the Pacific in suspicious circumstances (or due to clear evidence of hostile action)
The US implements significant travel restrictions on Chinese citizens (compared to 2024)
Reports of a major corruption scandal involving a Taiwanese/US/Japanese/South-Korean semiconductor company
Oil prices are at >=100 dollars a barrel at any time in the 12-month window
Reports that a large scale cyberattack has physically damaged AI chips in the West
Credible reports in Western news media about activity relating to biolabs in North Korea
1 million humanoid robots have been manufactured
50k soldiers from NATO countries are stationed in Ukraine
A popular Western podcaster/youtuber is prevented from leaving a country by China/Russia
the US implements tariffs of at least 50% on most imports from China
A US movie with a budget of at least 30 million dollars is released containing a US vs China war scene
The US bombs Iran
Attack on a US military asset in the Pacific
A Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturing facility is damaged in a fire/explosion or act of sabotage
An apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target in Taiwan
A human walks on the Moon
At least three prominent Taiwanese AI researchers disappear
Reports that the US has used a sixth-generation fighter in combat operations
Reports that China has used a sixth-generation fighter in combat operations
The US reduces sanctions on Russia
Ukraine loses the Donbass region in a ceasefire/peace deal with Russia
The US attempts to expand its territory by force
Reports of suspicious electromagnetic phenomena in the upper atmosphere
Elon Musk is pardoned
China arrests / takes hostage at least 100 westerners (non-taiwanese) on spurious grounds
The US attempts to expand its territory by economic coercion
Attempted coup in Taiwan
the US implements tariffs of at least 75% on most imports from China
Donald Trump is replaced as the US's leader
The US withdraws from NATO
Vladimir Putin is replaced as Russia's leader
100k soldiers from NATO countries are stationed in Ukraine
A NATO soldier on active duty is killed by Russia
Russia attacks a NATO member (excluding attacks on submarine cables)
AGI is achieved by a non-Chinese entity
North Korea detonates a nuclear weapon
The US military performs combat operations in Mexico
Xi Jinping is replaced as China's leader
India detonates a nuclear weapon
Russia cedes territory to China
Vladivostok is not under Russia's control
Ukraine signs a deal with the US giving it access to its minerals
Zelensky is replaced as the leader of Ukraine
Reports in western media about a Taiwanese businessperson falling out of the window of a tall building
Taiwanese political leader dies in small plane accident (w/out being attacked by kinetic or other physical weapon)
Chinese soldiers present in Europe in official combat roles (including peacekeeping)
An AI datacenter is hit by a significant EMP blast
China executes at least 5 citizens of western countries
AGI is achieved by a Chinese entity
A major pandemic occurs
Attempted coup in Russia
Attempted coup in the Phillipines
The US military performs combat operations on Palestinian territory
The US detonates a nuclear weapon
The US attacks a NATO member
Tulsi Gabbard is arrested on treason charges
A nuclear weapon is detonated
Attempted coup in China
Japan takes control of the Kuril Islands
Successful revolution in Iran
Russia detonates a nuclear weapon
Elon Musk is arrested on treason charges
Attempted coup in the US
Strong evidence supporting the covid lab-leak theory emerges
China detonates a nuclear weapon
Japan detonates a nuclear weapon
South Korea detonates a nuclear weapon
Australia detonates a nuclear weapon
A room temperature superconductor is discovered
90
84
79
77
76
75
72
70
70
70
66
66
66
66
61
60
60
60
60
57
55
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55
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54
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
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43
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43
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42
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42
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40
37
37
37
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34
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34
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33
33
31
28
28
28
27
26
26
26
25
25
25
22
15
12
12
7
5
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1008
642
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1051
697
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1218
939