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Prediction markets for Washington and Wall Street

Will Trump balance the U.S. budget before his term ends?

Feb 7, 9:09 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

2.63%chance

7429608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6082

164

What will Trump try to bring under U.S. control?

Dec 23, 1:53 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

374650

OptionProbability

Greenland

Panama Canal

Other

Canada

Yucatán

Baja

Sonora

63

18

8

5

3

2

2

Will PA Governor Josh Shapiro be arrested in connection with the Butler PA attempt to assassinate Trump?

Feb 10, 3:05 PMFeb 18, 4:59 AM

234514

OptionProbability

Shapiro is subpoenaed to testify before Congress, the FBI, or another agency of the Federal government

Shapiro is indicted by a grand jury

Shapiro is arrested

Shapiro is brought to trial

Shapiro is found guilty of involvement with the plot

19

6

5

5

3

Which party will control the US senate after the 2030 midterm elections?

Dec 5, 3:35 PMNov 13, 4:59 AM

292652

OptionProbability

Republicans

Democrats

50

50

Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?

May 27, 2:12 PMNov 20, 7:59 AM

31.11%chance

101159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1488

672

First event in new White House ballroom?

Oct 26, 4:40 PMFeb 1, 5:35 PM

14603

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2029

Before July 2028

Before Jan 2028

Before July 2027

Before Jan 2027

Before July 2026

68

49

41

28

6

0

Will any of FORD / GENERAL MOTORS / STELLANTIS declare any chapter of bankruptcy between now and 2027?

Jan 2, 1:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.76%chance

6204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

304

33

Rippling wins its lawsuit against Deel by 2028?

May 12, 5:33 PMJan 1, 6:33 PM

52.98%chance

5183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

942

Was Haley Stevens paid to endorse Mike Rodgers?

Nov 1, 10:39 PMDec 31, 10:37 PM

22.29%chance

9176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

187

54

Will the US military strike Houthi targets in Yemen before November 12, 2026?

Oct 12, 9:10 AMNov 12, 4:59 AM

8%chance

5135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

81

What number of Am Law 100 firms will have capitulated to Trump by the 2026 midterms?

Apr 4, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

238

OptionProbability

6-10

11-20

21-30

Less than 5

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

22

15

10

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

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