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Prediction markets for Welcome

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Mar 27, 12:37 AMMar 22, 6:59 AM

10611038773

3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.

Dec 27, 8:14 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

79.49%chance

6116874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1969

508

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.52%chance

3412373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19679

5082

Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

Oct 21, 3:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.96%chance

13111292

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2160

1961

Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029

Feb 11, 12:05 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

22.52%chance

264536

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1855

539

Will it be legal for Americans to bet on elections in 2026?

May 10, 8:14 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

90.21%chance

534255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2826

201

Will someone die while wearing Apple's Vision Pro by the end of 2025?

Feb 3, 10:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

31.7%chance

603621

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1656

511

Will the animal rights movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

Oct 21, 5:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.54%chance

703479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1387

1102

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

75.64%chance

392362

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1762

567

Will GPT-5 be able to make original jokes Manifold users consider funny?

Apr 21, 6:20 PMSep 1, 9:59 PM

67.45%chance

492334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

867

By 2030 will the most-used cryptocurrency have none of the highly criticised flaws of those popular in 2024?

Feb 3, 6:51 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

29.46%chance

281611

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

926

🎗️ Will CharityVest experience significant financial trouble that puts donors' accounts at risk?

Mar 4, 5:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.13%chance

10454

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

933

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