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Prediction markets for West End

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Mar 3, 1:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.29%chance

464116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2622

208

Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

43.1%chance

53790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17520

12743

Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2026?

Jun 9, 10:52 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

15%chance

262373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1633

50

Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2027?

Jun 9, 10:54 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

8.49%chance

171440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1707

24

Will Kanye West perform at a Superbowl Halftime show before the end of 2029?

May 3, 2:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.02%chance

9932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

985

10

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.32%chance

10603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1375

730

Will WA SWIS 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$135/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

33.38%chance

3511

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10479

9751

Will WA SWIS 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$150/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

33.38%chance

3511

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10479

9751

Will Vic NEM 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$115/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

40.92%chance

2501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10499

9640

When will the play about the tourney at Harrenhal set in George R. R. Martin's ASOIAF universe debut?

Nov 2, 5:40 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2475

OptionProbability

Before 2035

Before 2030

Before 2027

Before 2028

Before 2029

Before the release of "The Winds of Winter"

Within the lifetime of George R.R. Martin

Before 2026

98

97

96

96

96

95

94

0

Will Kanye West orbit the Earth before the end of 2031?

May 2, 6:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.41%chance

11153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

218

46

Will Israel dismantle any settlements in the West Bank before the end of 2035?

Mar 9, 12:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.86%chance

780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

158

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