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Prediction markets for West End

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Mar 3, 1:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.29%chance

464116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2622

208

Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2026?

Jun 9, 10:52 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

13.15%chance

252331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1671

44

Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2027?

Jun 9, 10:54 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

8.49%chance

171440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1707

24

Will Kanye West perform at a Superbowl Halftime show before the end of 2029?

May 3, 2:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.02%chance

9932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

985

10

If Russia secures a substantively pro-Russian ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, what will be the causes? [add responses]

Feb 22, 7:44 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

16559

OptionProbability

Ukraine runs out of soldiers - further mobilization not feasible

Western aid shortage / economic collapse in Ukraine

Decisive Russian military victory

Trump wins US elections and forces Ukraine to cede territories

Black swan geopolitical events 🦢

Collapse of Ukraine's government

70

69

51

50

49

29

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.96%chance

8548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1334

752

Will India join Russia + China + Iran alliance? (2026 media)

Jan 1, 2:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.75%chance

10281

OptionVotes

YES

NO

304

33

Will Massachusetts East-West rail be under construction before 2027?

Mar 13, 12:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.74%chance

9275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

511

171

Will Kanye West orbit the Earth before the end of 2031?

May 2, 6:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.41%chance

11153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

218

46

What share of Russia’s frozen central bank reserves will have been used to support Ukraine?

Dec 10, 12:19 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3118

OptionProbability

0 - 9%

10 - 19%

20 - 29%

30 - 39%

40 - 49%

50 - 59%

60 - 69%

70 - 79%

80 - 89%

90 - 100%

12

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

Will Israel dismantle any settlements in the West Bank before the end of 2035?

Mar 9, 12:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.36%chance

675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

153

Will there be a new TRIUMPH OF THE WILL -like film centered on MAGA/Trump by EOY2028?

Jan 20, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.87%chance

332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

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