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Prediction markets for West End

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Mar 3, 1:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.29%chance

464116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2622

208

Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2026?

Jun 9, 10:52 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

13.15%chance

252331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1671

44

Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2027?

Jun 9, 10:54 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

16.44%chance

171417

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1548

45

What will be the status of the Los Angeles Metro D (Purple) Line Extension by the 2028 Summer Olympics?

Dec 31, 4:24 AMJul 15, 6:59 AM

41319

OptionProbability

Section 3 open

Section 2 open

Section 1 open

No sections fully open

49

34

12

5

Will Kanye West perform at a Superbowl Halftime show before the end of 2029?

May 3, 2:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.02%chance

9932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

985

10

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.96%chance

8548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1334

752

Will India join Russia + China + Iran alliance? (2026 media)

Jan 1, 2:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.27%chance

7258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

313

32

When will the play about the tourney at Harrenhal set in George R. R. Martin's ASOIAF universe debut?

Nov 2, 5:40 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2154

OptionProbability

Before the release of "The Winds of Winter"

Before 2035

Before 2030

Within the lifetime of George R.R. Martin

Before 2028

Before 2029

Before 2027

Before 2026

76

71

66

66

50

50

34

0

If Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it?

Jan 2, 10:17 AMJan 2, 10:17 AM

75.67%chance

6146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

176

57

Will Kanye West orbit the Earth before the end of 2031?

May 2, 6:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20%chance

10128

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Will Israel dismantle any settlements in the West Bank before the end of 2035?

Mar 9, 12:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.36%chance

675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

153

Will there be a new TRIUMPH OF THE WILL -like film centered on MAGA/Trump by EOY2028?

Jan 20, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.87%chance

332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

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