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Prediction markets for West End

Will Israel annex a part of the West Bank by the end of 2025?

Nov 17, 10:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.9%chance

18767499

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5788

173

China will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2025

Oct 23, 11:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.86%chance

259387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4655

734

Will Kanye West release a porn video to consumers before the end of 2025?

Jan 1, 11:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.91%chance

256949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3411

293

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Mar 3, 1:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.29%chance

464116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2622

208

Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2025?

Jun 9, 10:51 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

5.27%chance

233398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1984

20

Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2026?

Jun 9, 10:52 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

35.24%chance

231790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1382

131

What will be the status of the Los Angeles Metro D (Purple) Line Extension by the 2028 Summer Olympics?

Dec 31, 4:24 AMJul 15, 6:59 AM

41219

OptionProbability

Section 3 open

Section 2 open

Section 1 open

No sections fully open

48

33

14

5

Will Kanye West perform at a Superbowl Halftime show before the end of 2029?

May 3, 2:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.02%chance

9932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

985

10

Will Kanye West get divorced and remarried by the end of 2025?

Oct 8, 1:29 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.26%chance

21902

OptionVotes

YES

NO

545

18

Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2027?

Jun 9, 10:54 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

89.68%chance

12679

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

945

Will Kanye West orbit the Earth before the end of 2031?

May 2, 6:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20%chance

10128

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Will Israel dismantle any settlements in the West Bank before the end of 2035?

Mar 9, 12:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.36%chance

675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

153

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