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Prediction markets for Will
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
40%chance
387910107224
OptionVotes
11008
10270
Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by December 31, 2025?
Jan 7, 1:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
7.82%chance
1029138455
OptionVotes
344298
43497
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM
93.31%chance
8707794771
OptionVotes
19436
8769
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
55.64%chance
18941402481
OptionVotes
4861
3871
Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?
Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
57%chance
609412199
OptionVotes
17525
7394
OptionVotes
136950
82232
Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?
Dec 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
31.1%chance
165276848
OptionVotes
148529
67511
OptionVotes
102188
89894
Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?
Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM
50.05%chance
220179963
OptionVotes
1301
939
Will my ex partner and I get back together within 3 years?
Aug 16, 1:44 AMJun 17, 6:59 AM
67.18%chance
191142497
OptionVotes
159534
34939
Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?
Jan 22, 5:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
32.62%chance
4347927
OptionVotes
117528
88845
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM
56.82%chance
5726974
OptionVotes
114717
87171