Worli News

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

95.02%chance

9869796970

OptionVotes

YES

25468

8406

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

Dec 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

83.57%chance

402889021

OptionVotes

YES

225790

44097

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

103447144

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2027

Before January 2028

Before January 2030

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Before January 2026

Before January 2029

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

Will working be necessary in 2070?

May 11, 3:08 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.97%chance

299235018

OptionVotes

YES

3230

1506

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65%chance

9845254

OptionVotes

YES

1262

800

Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

Apr 14, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5126742

OptionProbability

Javokhir Sindarov

Gukesh D

Prediction markets for Worli

Prediction markets for Worli

Prediction markets for Worli

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Will working be necessary in 2070?

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

Will Jim Fund's assets be worth more than $20,000,000 on Jan1'29

Will Donald Trump be ranked as the worst US President by the end of his second term according to CSPAN's Survey?

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

Does Nectome's preservation protocol work?

Will Gukesh win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

When will Guinea Worm Disease be eradicated?

Latest stories