Worli News

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

94.86%chance

9499316662

OptionVotes

YES

24774

8443

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

Dec 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

87.64%chance

320729748

OptionVotes

YES

266529

37314

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

99443812

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2030

Before January 2029

Before January 2028

Before January 2027

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Before January 2026

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

Will working be necessary in 2070?

May 11, 3:08 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

32.62%chance

297234945

OptionVotes

YES

3183

1529

Will Chittagong Bangladesh be declared the most liveable city in the world by the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 5:17 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1%chance

24173148

OptionVotes

YES

99499

1005

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

61.39%chance

253131777

OptionVotes

YES

1262

794

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Apr 21, 8:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

52%chance

320111902

OptionVotes

YES

1004

972

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion during his lifetime?

Sep 20, 7:29 PMJun 29, 3:59 AM

85%chance

10366052

OptionVotes

YES

2903

485

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

57.82%chance

9543935

OptionVotes

YES

1071

920

Will Jim Fund's assets be worth more than $20,000,000 on Jan1'29

Nov 18, 5:55 AMNov 7, 10:59 AM

21.15%chance

920640

OptionVotes

YES

15064

108

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64.03%chance

3014622

OptionVotes

YES

13282

8380

When will Guinea Worm Disease be eradicated?

Jan 4, 12:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

40.4%chance

61933

OptionProbability

YES

6496

4097

Worli News

Prediction markets for Worli

Prediction markets for Worli

Prediction markets for Worli

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Will working be necessary in 2070?

Will Chittagong Bangladesh be declared the most liveable city in the world by the end of 2026?

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion during his lifetime?

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Will Jim Fund's assets be worth more than $20,000,000 on Jan1'29

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

When will Guinea Worm Disease be eradicated?

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