Worli News

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

96%chance

101110548407

OptionVotes

YES

31069

8145

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

112449970

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2028

Before January 2029

Before January 2030

Before January 2027

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Before January 2026

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

Will working be necessary in 2070?

May 11, 3:08 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

26.95%chance

303235787

OptionVotes

YES

3644

1334

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65.82%chance

10045304

OptionVotes

YES

1287

787

If Dems win the House or Senate in 2026, will officials try to block a working Democratic majority from being seated?

Sep 23, 6:08 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

15.73%chance

16740693

OptionVotes

YES

24642

5236

Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

Apr 14, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7039486

OptionProbability

Javokhir Sindarov

Gukesh D

Ethan Klein's affair is a cover for something worse.

Oct 26, 2:54 PMNov 2, 2:50 PM

5.35%chance

932445

OptionVotes

YES

42067

2377

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Feb 17, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35%chance

18914872

OptionVotes

YES

3617

1599

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64.11%chance

3414703

OptionVotes

YES

13307

8366

Does Nectome's preservation protocol work?

Mar 12, 6:22 AMJan 2, 6:11 AM

44.1%chance

3712703

OptionVotes

YES

11259

8882

Will Worst Boyfriend Ever be convicted of a felony before 2030?

Oct 6, 3:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.27%chance

52702

OptionVotes

YES

12700

7874

In three months, will I think setting up this Manifold news reader was worth it?

Oct 21, 2:56 AMJan 21, 2:54 AM

50.53%chance

111652

OptionVotes

YES

10107

9894

Worli News

Prediction markets for Worli

Prediction markets for Worli

Prediction markets for Worli

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Will working be necessary in 2070?

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

If Dems win the House or Senate in 2026, will officials try to block a working Democratic majority from being seated?

Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

Ethan Klein's affair is a cover for something worse.

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

Does Nectome's preservation protocol work?

Will Worst Boyfriend Ever be convicted of a felony before 2030?

In three months, will I think setting up this Manifold news reader was worth it?

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