Worli News

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

93.02%chance

8657703802

OptionVotes

YES

18686

8824

If Eliezer Yudkowsky charitably reviews my work, he will update his p(doom) to < 0.1. (Below 10%)

Jul 2, 2:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.5%chance

262479246

OptionVotes

YES

10207

8290

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

Dec 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

31.05%chance

165276698

OptionVotes

YES

148701

67433

Will working be necessary in 2070?

May 11, 3:08 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.13%chance

293232985

OptionVotes

YES

4147

1170

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

81158482

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2030

Before January 2029

Before January 2028

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

Before January 2027

Before January 2026

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

71%chance

227113703

OptionVotes

YES

1565

639

Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?

Jan 22, 5:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

80.61%chance

11052040

OptionVotes

YES

12017

9434

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.67%chance

9243679

OptionVotes

YES

1050

916

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

8538513

OptionVotes

YES

987

956

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64%chance

3014612

OptionVotes

YES

13272

8386

Is Aella worth more than 1 million dollars?

Oct 26, 7:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85.41%chance

528613

OptionVotes

YES

2419

413

Who will win the 2025 League of Legends World Championship?

Jul 15, 11:30 AMDec 1, 11:59 PM

63231

OptionProbability

Other

Gen. G

Worli News

Prediction markets for Worli

Prediction markets for Worli

Prediction markets for Worli

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

If Eliezer Yudkowsky charitably reviews my work, he will update his p(doom) to < 0.1. (Below 10%)

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

Will working be necessary in 2070?

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

Is Aella worth more than 1 million dollars?

Who will win the 2025 League of Legends World Championship?

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