Worli News

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

96.01%chance

100610473168

OptionVotes

YES

31114

8143

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

110449937

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2029

Before January 2028

Before January 2030

Before January 2027

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Before January 2026

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

Will working be necessary in 2070?

May 11, 3:08 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.39%chance

300235339

OptionVotes

YES

3273

1486

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65.82%chance

10045304

OptionVotes

YES

1287

787

Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

Apr 14, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6534714

OptionProbability

Javokhir Sindarov

Gukesh D

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8110310

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

When will Guinea Worm Disease be eradicated?

Jan 4, 12:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

39.65%chance

82034

OptionProbability

YES

6595

4032

Worli News

Prediction markets for Worli

Prediction markets for Worli

Prediction markets for Worli

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Will working be necessary in 2070?

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

Will Jim Fund's assets be worth more than $20,000,000 on Jan1'29

Will Donald Trump be ranked as the worst US President by the end of his second term according to CSPAN's Survey?

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

Does Nectome's preservation protocol work?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

When will Guinea Worm Disease be eradicated?

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