Worli News

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

93.2%chance

9128720118

OptionVotes

YES

19153

8789

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

97399983

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2030

Before January 2040

Before January 2028

Before January 2029

Before January 2027

Before January 2026

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

Dec 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

53%chance

212366241

OptionVotes

YES

106544

93815

Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?

Jan 22, 5:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

98.77%chance

211296419

OptionVotes

YES

116060

4709

Will working be necessary in 2070?

May 11, 3:08 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.94%chance

294234376

OptionVotes

YES

3230

1504

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Apr 21, 8:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

47.84%chance

318110419

OptionVotes

YES

1053

921

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.91%chance

9443785

OptionVotes

YES

1046

921

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64.03%chance

3014622

OptionVotes

YES

13282

8380

Will Jim Fund's assets be worth more than $20,000,000 on Jan1'29

Nov 18, 5:55 AMNov 7, 10:59 AM

10.37%chance

712934

OptionVotes

YES

15397

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

779932

OptionProbability

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

Is Aella worth more than 1 million dollars?

Oct 26, 7:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85.24%chance

548733

OptionVotes

YES

2403

416

When will Guinea Worm Disease be eradicated?

Jan 4, 12:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

40.32%chance

61923

OptionProbability

YES

6506

4091

Worli News

Prediction markets for Worli

Prediction markets for Worli

Prediction markets for Worli

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?

Will working be necessary in 2070?

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

Will Jim Fund's assets be worth more than $20,000,000 on Jan1'29

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Is Aella worth more than 1 million dollars?

When will Guinea Worm Disease be eradicated?

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