Worli News

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

94.07%chance

9679448681

OptionVotes

YES

21727

8621

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

Dec 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

82.38%chance

346779822

OptionVotes

YES

216507

46001

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

103446824

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2027

Before January 2028

Before January 2030

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Before January 2026

Before January 2029

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

Will working be necessary in 2070?

May 11, 3:08 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.94%chance

297234995

OptionVotes

YES

3233

1505

Will Chittagong Bangladesh be declared the most liveable city in the world by the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 5:17 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1.11%chance

24178356

OptionVotes

YES

94290

1061

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Apr 21, 8:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

46.38%chance

322112496

OptionVotes

YES

1085

895

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

56.68%chance

9643955

OptionVotes

YES

1044

940

Will Jim Fund's assets be worth more than $20,000,000 on Jan1'29

Nov 18, 5:55 AMNov 7, 10:59 AM

21.15%chance

920640

OptionVotes

YES

15064

108

Will Donald Trump be ranked as the worst US President by the end of his second term according to CSPAN's Survey?

Mar 10, 3:02 AMMar 31, 3:59 PM

45%chance

10318710

OptionVotes

YES

251

132

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64.03%chance

3014622

OptionVotes

YES

13282

8380

Does Nectome's preservation protocol work?

Mar 12, 6:22 AMJan 2, 6:11 AM

45.35%chance

3510099

OptionVotes

YES

10977

9110

When will Guinea Worm Disease be eradicated?

Jan 4, 12:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

40.4%chance

61933

OptionProbability

YES

6496

4097

Worli News

Prediction markets for Worli

Prediction markets for Worli

Prediction markets for Worli

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Will working be necessary in 2070?

Will Chittagong Bangladesh be declared the most liveable city in the world by the end of 2026?

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Will Jim Fund's assets be worth more than $20,000,000 on Jan1'29

Will Donald Trump be ranked as the worst US President by the end of his second term according to CSPAN's Survey?

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

Does Nectome's preservation protocol work?

When will Guinea Worm Disease be eradicated?

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