Worli News

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

96%chance

99910348729

OptionVotes

YES

31069

8145

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

103447885

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2027

Before January 2028

Before January 2029

Before January 2030

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Before January 2026

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

Will working be necessary in 2070?

May 11, 3:08 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.32%chance

299235070

OptionVotes

YES

3279

1484

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Apr 21, 8:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

51%chance

322116747

OptionVotes

YES

991

984

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65%chance

9945279

OptionVotes

YES

1262

800

Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

Apr 14, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5430637

OptionProbability

Javokhir Sindarov

Gukesh D

Will Jim Fund's assets be worth more than $20,000,000 on Jan1'29

Nov 18, 5:55 AMNov 7, 10:59 AM

19.69%chance

920668

OptionVotes

YES

15088

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64.03%chance

3314678

OptionVotes

YES

13282

8380

Does Nectome's preservation protocol work?

Mar 12, 6:22 AMJan 2, 6:11 AM

49.21%chance

3611603

OptionVotes

YES

10159

9844

🇳🇴NOR vs 🇫🇷FRA [World Cup '26]

Jun 9, 4:15 AMJun 26, 9:30 PM

749176

OptionProbability

🇫🇷 France

🇳🇴 Norway

Draw

🇨🇻CPV vs 🇸🇦KSA [World Cup '26]

Jun 9, 4:15 AMJun 27, 2:30 AM

447611

OptionProbability

🇨🇻 Cape Verde Islands

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia

Draw

2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Final (TBD beats TBD)

May 17, 3:23 AMJul 19, 2:59 PM

50.3%chance

4317

OptionVotes

YES

10060

9941

Worli News

Prediction markets for Worli

Prediction markets for Worli

Prediction markets for Worli

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Will working be necessary in 2070?

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

Will Jim Fund's assets be worth more than $20,000,000 on Jan1'29

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

Does Nectome's preservation protocol work?

🇳🇴NOR vs 🇫🇷FRA [World Cup '26]

🇨🇻CPV vs 🇸🇦KSA [World Cup '26]

2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Final (TBD beats TBD)

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