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Prediction markets for 10 Most Wanted

Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?

Sep 16, 9:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76166191

OptionProbability

OpenAI

xAI

Alphabet / Google

OpenAI (after January)

OpenAI (after February)

Google (after February)

xAI (After initial Grok 3 entry)

Google (after 2.5 release)

OpenAI (May or later)

Moonshot

DeepSeek

Anthropic

xAI (April or later)

Safe Superintelligence (SSI)

Meta

Microsoft (?)

Apple (?)

Mistral

Reka AI

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

93

89

21

12

8

5

4

3

3

2

2

2

Will Tesla launch level 4 robotaxis this summer?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

21.94%chance

19938063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1419

837

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66.01%chance

10726001

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1394

718

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

80.91%chance

11225182

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1618

741

Will any image model available to the public be able to reliably produce images of every regular polygon before 2026?

Dec 30, 6:44 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.41%chance

12222971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1112

420

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

51.75%chance

4910166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1052

911

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.05%chance

145589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7177

3289

I film all of 2025* at 4k

Jan 15, 5:10 PMJan 20, 4:59 AM

25.74%chance

394896

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1698

589

Will we get in the pod and eat the bugs?

Sep 14, 5:02 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.31%chance

332492

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

492

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will it become common to carry separate devices to enable AI listening to self outputs by mid 2026

Oct 1, 6:10 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

23.61%chance

111128

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1799

556

Will Quentin Tarantino direct more than 10 films?

Apr 23, 6:54 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

77.52%chance

19394

OptionVotes

YES

NO

978

923

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