OptionVotes
NO
YES
1027
830
OptionProbability
≥$30B
≥$35B
≥$40B
≥$45B
≥$50B
≥$55B
≥$60B
≥$65B
≥$70B
≥$75B
≥$80B
100
52
41
32
25
21
16
13
10
Dec 31st 2028 or earlier?
June 31st 2028 or earlier?
Dec 31st 2027 or earlier?
June 31st 2027 or earlier?
Dec 31st 2026 or earlier?
Dec 31st 2025 or earlier?
June 31st 2026 or earlier?
33
23
11
8
6
0
143
81
IF ban enacted by end of 2028: OpenAI + Anthropic ≥ $4T combined on Jan 1, 2029 (N/A if no ban)
IF no ban by end of 2028: OpenAI + Anthropic ≥ $4T combined on Jan 1, 2029 (N/A if ban)
US bans open-weight frontier AI models before 2030
60
50
28
