OptionVotes
NO
YES
1027
830
OptionProbability
Dec 31st 2028 or earlier?
June 31st 2028 or earlier?
Dec 31st 2027 or earlier?
June 31st 2027 or earlier?
Dec 31st 2026 or earlier?
Dec 31st 2025 or earlier?
June 31st 2026 or earlier?
33
23
11
8
6
0
176
72
IF ban enacted by end of 2028: OpenAI + Anthropic ≥ $4T combined on Jan 1, 2029 (N/A if no ban)
IF no ban by end of 2028: OpenAI + Anthropic ≥ $4T combined on Jan 1, 2029 (N/A if ban)
US bans open-weight frontier AI models before 2030
60
50
28
