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Prediction markets for 12 Months to Live

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.51%chance

195543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10062

2804

How much will my jaw surgery cost?

Nov 15, 4:33 AMFeb 26, 7:59 AM

5611

OptionProbability

20-29k

30-39k

10-19k

40-49k

50-59k

60-69k

70-79k

>89k

80-89k

<10k

22

21

11

8

8

8

8

8

5

3

Will "Having OCD is like living in North Korea (Her..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 19, 10:29 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.73%chance

255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

997

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