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Prediction markets for 15 Pro

Will the Julia programming language be in top 15 TIOBE Index by 2026?

Sep 18, 9:51 AMMar 26, 11:59 PM

2.51%chance

245572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4951

747

What will be the last iPhon to be made in China?

Jan 5, 10:41 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

73984

OptionProbability

iPhone 16

iPhone 18

iPhone 19+

iPhone 17

iPhone 15

39

28

28

4

1

Will Global nickel ore production (15-month trailing) exceed 230 million tonnes on May 31, 2026?

Mar 4, 12:04 AMMay 31, 12:04 AM

62.55%chance

71523

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

77

When will Apple release an iPhone with >5x optical zoom?

Apr 3, 10:40 PMApr 11, 4:59 AM

161442

OptionProbability

Before 2028

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

64

64

50

46

0

0

Will Global nickel ore production (15-month trailing) exceed 250 million tonnes on May 31, 2026?

Mar 4, 12:04 AMMay 31, 12:04 AM

61.7%chance

6696

OptionVotes

NO

YES

127

79

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2030 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4680

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

95

2

1

1

1

1

1

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2027 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2575

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

95

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Global nickel ore production (15-month trailing) exceed 270 million tonnes on May 31, 2026?

Mar 4, 12:04 AMMay 31, 12:04 AM

18.24%chance

3571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

212

47

Will flatback posture be confirmed as the primary cause of schizophrenia by 2030?

Aug 16, 4:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.29%chance

15387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1338

923

Will over 15% of the United States' energy be produced from renewable sources by the end of 2030?

Jan 19, 3:02 AMJan 26, 4:59 AM

85.11%chance

14348

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1296

912

Will the share of global silver production disrupted by violence in Mexico exceed 15% on April 1, 2026?

Mar 2, 9:08 PMApr 1, 9:07 PM

13.79%chance

2150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

250

40

Will the share of global silver production disrupted by violence in Mexico exceed 15% on May 1, 2026?

Mar 2, 9:08 PMMay 1, 9:07 PM

18.48%chance

1110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

48

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