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Prediction markets for 16

Which cards will be re-banned in Modern within two years (before Dec. 16, 2026)?

Dec 17, 12:00 AMDec 17, 7:59 AM

156321

OptionProbability

Mox Opal

Faithless Looting

Green Sun's Zenith

Splinter Twin

18

4

2

1

Elon Musk continuously Tesla CEO through January 16, 2026 market close?

May 2, 5:56 PMJan 27, 4:59 PM

92%chance

185322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2309

785

Which UK parties will outperform among 16-17 year olds in the next general election?

Jul 17, 7:39 PMAug 30, 7:38 PM

223817

OptionProbability

Green

Your Party (new far left party)

Labour

Reform

Lib Dems

Conservative

79

70

59

51

50

25

I consider April 16, 2025, an especially important day toward AGI at EOY 2026

Apr 16, 10:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.26%chance

233219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2269

441

What do you predict Sam Bankman-Fried's net worth will be on Nov 16, 2025? (i.e., ~3 years from the FTX crises)

Nov 16, 3:29 PMOct 15, 3:59 AM

48%chance

201863

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1347

750

TSLA close price January 16, 2026, if Musk remains Tesla CEO?

May 2, 5:54 PMJan 27, 11:59 PM

41088

Will at least 16 AI x-risk researchers move to doomsday bunkers in the Southern Hemisphere by 2026-01-01?

Nov 14, 8:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.37%chance

21865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1562

876

When will Jet Lag: The Game Season 16 first air on Nebula?

Jul 17, 1:46 AMJan 1, 1:41 AM

3479

OptionProbability

2025

First Half of 2026

Second Half of 2026

Not Before 2027

75

20

3

3

Will the U.S. close at least 10 embassies in Africa before October 16, 2025?

Apr 21, 8:12 AMOct 16, 11:59 PM

5.13%chance

8360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

430

23

Given that Hamas will execute a hostage and release video of the killing, will at least 1 hostage be a child under 16?

Nov 17, 10:16 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

22.57%chance

10246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

275

152

Will the Canadian Premier League have 16 clubs by the end of 2035?

Jun 3, 11:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.09%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

Will Matt go to the gym before 16:00 on Wednesday

Aug 25, 9:06 PMAug 26, 10:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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