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171 News

    Prediction markets for 171

    OptionProbability

    Pilot Action: Pilot action was a primary cause of the crash.

    Design/Manufacturing Defect: A Boeing design or manufacturing defect was a primary cause of the crash.

    Maintenance/Fueling Lapse: An Air India maintenance or fueling lapse was a primary cause of the crash.

    89

    21

    18

    Will I make IMO any year

    Sep 25, 2:24 AMMay 2, 3:59 AM
    0.8%chance
    363810

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1414

    12

    OptionProbability

    #149 – Tim LeBon on how altruistic perfectionism is self-defeating

    #151 – Ajeya Cotra on accidentally teaching AI models to deceive us

    #169 – Paul Niehaus on whether cash transfers cause economic growth, and keeping theft to acceptable levels

    #170 – Santosh Harish on how air pollution is responsible for ~12% of global deaths — and how to get that number down

    #150 – Tom Davidson on how quickly AI could transform the world

    #152 – Joe Carlsmith on navigating serious philosophical confusion

    #153 – Elie Hassenfeld on two big picture critiques of GiveWell's approach, and six lessons from their recent work

    #154 – Rohin Shah on DeepMind and trying to fairly hear out both AI doomers and doubters

    #155 – Lennart Heim on the compute governance era and what has to come after

    #156 – Markus Anderljung on how to regulate cutting-edge AI models

    #157 – Ezra Klein on existential risk from AI and what DC could do about it

    #158 – Holden Karnofsky on how AIs might take over even if they're no smarter than humans, and his 4-part playbook for AI risk

    #159 – Jan Leike on OpenAI's massive push to make superintelligence safe in 4 years or less

    #161 – Michael Webb on whether AI will soon cause job loss, lower incomes, and higher inequality — or the opposite

    #162 – Mustafa Suleyman on getting Washington and Silicon Valley to tame AI

    #163 – Toby Ord on the perils of maximising the good that you do

    #166 – Tantum Collins on what he's learned as an AI policy insider at the White House, DeepMind and elsewhere

    #168 – Ian Morris on whether deep history says we're heading for an intelligence explosion

    #171 – Alison Young on how top labs have jeopardised public health with repeated biosafety failures

    #173 – Jeff Sebo on digital minds, and how to avoid sleepwalking into a major moral catastrophe

    #174 – Nita Farahany on the neurotechnology already being used to convict criminals and manipulate workers

    #176 – Nathan Labenz on the final push for AGI, understanding OpenAI's leadership drama, and red-teaming frontier models

    #160 – Hannah Ritchie on why it makes sense to be optimistic about the environment

    #164 – Kevin Esvelt on cults that want to kill everyone, stealth vs wildfire pandemics, and how he felt inventing gene drives

    #165 – Anders Sandberg on war in space, whether civilisations age, and the best things possible in our universe

    #175 – Lucia Coulter on preventing lead poisoning for $1.66 per child

    #145 – Christopher Brown on why slavery abolition wasn't inevitable

    #146 – Robert Long on why large language models like GPT (probably) aren't conscious

    #167 – Seren Kell on the research gaps holding back alternative proteins from mass adoption

    #172 – Bryan Caplan on why you should stop reading the news

    #144 – Athena Aktipis on why cancer is actually one of the fundamental phenomena in our universe

    #147 – Spencer Greenberg on stopping valueless papers from getting into top journals

    #148 – Johannes Ackva on unfashionable climate interventions that work, and fashionable ones that don't

    45

    45

    45

    45

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    38

    38

    38

    38

    37

    37

    35

    35

    34

    34

    34

    OptionProbability

    151-170

    135-150

    171+

    134 or less

    52

    26

    16

    7

    Is fuel supply the root cause of the Air India 171 crash?

    Jun 15, 12:40 PMOct 31, 1:32 PM
    90.33%chance
    262222

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    306

    33

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1025

    976

    OptionProbability

    The cesium 133 F=3 <-> F=4 hyperfine microwave transition (no change)

    Any system based on weighted averages of uncertainty or timekeeping contributions

    The strontium 87 1S0 <-> 3P0 optical transition

    The ytterbium 171 1S0 <-> 3P0 optical transition

    Any other optical transition in ions

    Any other optical transition in neutral atoms

    The thorium 229 metastable nuclear optical transition (any realization)

    39

    22

    12

    12

    8

    5

    2

    How many books will I read in 2025?

    Jan 1, 10:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    6133

    OptionProbability

    <120

    120-130

    161-170

    181-190

    191-200

    201+

    171-180

    131-140

    141-150

    151-160

    Other

    47

    27

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

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