18 Court News

Mark Zuckerberg Divorced within 18 months?

Jan 14, 8:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.8%chance

12322264

OptionVotes

YES

4029

248

The Trump “J6” DC Election Interference Indictment

Sep 4, 3:11 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1814156

OptionProbability

Before trial begins: all 4 charges dropped, or whole case dismissed

Before a verdict of guilt for any of these charges: all 4 charges dropped, or whole case dismissed

Trial begins before 2031

Trump serves “house arrest” for any of the 4 alleged violations

Convicted of “Conspiracy to Defraud the United States”

Convicted of “Conspiracy to Obstruct an Official Proceeding”

Convicted of “Obstruction of and Attempt to Obstruct an Official Proceeding”

Convicted of “Conspiracy Against Rights”

Convicted of all 4 alleged violations

Trump goes to prison for any of the 4 alleged violations

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

YES

1009

979

Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030?

Nov 21, 3:40 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

4.97%chance

12871

OptionVotes

YES

1395

944

Will the Supreme Court leaker's identity be known by 2030?

Jan 21, 6:14 AMDec 31, 5:00 PM

35.16%chance

22598

OptionVotes

YES

1066

951

Will Richard Heart (Richard James Schueler) be convicted of any felony crime before 2030?

Nov 15, 2:40 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

42%chance

7501

OptionVotes

YES

171

131

Will the German Constitutional Court restrict Björn Höcke's basic rights?

Feb 3, 11:22 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7339

OptionProbability

The Federal Constitutional Court is not asked to decide.

The Federal Constituional Court is asked but decides that Höcke does not forfeit any basic rights.

The Federal Constitutional Court declares that any of Höcke's basic rights are forfeit.

When will conscripted Ukrainians be able to demobilize?

Mar 18, 11:06 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

7119

OptionProbability

Until EOY 2027

Until EOY 2028

Until EOY 2026

Until EOY 2025

Will Juvenile Life Without Parole (JLWOP) sentencing become a major political priority for either party before 2030?

Mar 10, 3:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

44.3%chance

7104

OptionVotes

YES

239

203

Will Mo Chara from Kneecap be found guilty of a terrism offence before the end of 2025?

May 23, 9:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.94%chance

593

OptionVotes

YES

178

Will SCOTUS strike down California's Ebony Alert law by 2030?

Feb 17, 10:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.3%chance

290

OptionVotes

YES

160

Will Uruguay's Libertarian Party secure at least 18 Chamber of Representatives seats in the 2029 legislative election?

Jun 5, 6:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

18 Court News

Prediction markets for 18 Court

Prediction markets for 18 Court

Prediction markets for 18 Court

Mark Zuckerberg Divorced within 18 months?

The Trump “J6” DC Election Interference Indictment

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030?

Will the Supreme Court leaker's identity be known by 2030?

Will Richard Heart (Richard James Schueler) be convicted of any felony crime before 2030?

Will the German Constitutional Court restrict Björn Höcke's basic rights?

When will conscripted Ukrainians be able to demobilize?

Will Juvenile Life Without Parole (JLWOP) sentencing become a major political priority for either party before 2030?

Will Mo Chara from Kneecap be found guilty of a terrism offence before the end of 2025?

Will SCOTUS strike down California's Ebony Alert law by 2030?

Will Uruguay's Libertarian Party secure at least 18 Chamber of Representatives seats in the 2029 legislative election?

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