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Prediction markets for 20

Will Donald Trump have a positive net favorability rate on December 20, 2025, according to 538?

Jan 22, 4:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2.57%chance

58187127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

44937

7944

China's rebar failure rate below 20% in 2025 national quality check?

Nov 26, 6:18 AMJul 29, 10:59 PM

82.78%chance

69160928

OptionVotes

NO

YES

219283

45603

Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?

Feb 20, 6:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.07%chance

13396795

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6110

1511

Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 (less strict criteria market)

Jul 2, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.12%chance

22089937

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16786

850

Will Trump pardon Luigi Mangione prior to Jan 20, 2029?

Jan 26, 3:07 AMFeb 25, 7:59 AM

2.68%chance

4983359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58604

5190

Will there be >20% semiconductor-specific tariffs lasting over a month by the end of 2025?

Aug 2, 10:11 PMDec 31, 7:00 AM

2.74%chance

4263920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

73275

3001

Alcatraz holds ten federal inmates for one week before January 20, 2029?

May 4, 11:58 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

10.14%chance

11337948

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29769

3359

Will both Donald Trump and Joe Biden be alive on January 20, 2029 (noon ET)?

Nov 16, 5:04 AMJan 21, 5:01 AM

37.18%chance

19932984

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2910

1157

Will Joe Biden (born 20 November 1942) outlive Vladimir Putin (born 7 October 1952)?

Mar 31, 9:14 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15.94%chance

14625407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9115

5689

Tesla completes 20,000+ rideshare rides per week before April 2026?

May 1, 12:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.6%chance

2515573

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1267

789

Will Manifold "be around" in 20 years?

Sep 6, 1:08 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

51.77%chance

8311673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1578

1201

Will Harriet Tubman replace Andrew Jackson on the $20 by the end of 2030?

Nov 10, 2:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.19%chance

132736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11683

8566

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