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Prediction markets for 20

[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.28%chance

385252072

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6692

4439

Will Trump pardon Luigi Mangione prior to Jan 20, 2029?

Jan 26, 3:07 AMFeb 22, 7:59 AM

1.09%chance

57154918

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117972

4177

Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?

Feb 20, 6:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.79%chance

137103859

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10162

1354

Alcatraz holds ten federal inmates for one week before January 20, 2029?

May 4, 11:58 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

9.23%chance

11644350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31394

3191

Will both Donald Trump and Joe Biden be alive on January 20, 2029 (noon ET)?

Nov 16, 5:04 AMJan 21, 5:01 AM

61.58%chance

21439747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2104

1953

Will Joe Biden (born 20 November 1942) outlive Vladimir Putin (born 7 October 1952)?

Mar 31, 9:14 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19.84%chance

14826834

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7430

6053

Will Jim Fund's assets be worth more than $20,000,000 on Jan1'29

Nov 18, 5:55 AMNov 7, 10:59 AM

19.69%chance

920668

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15088

92

Will Manifold "be around" in 20 years?

Sep 6, 1:08 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

49.15%chance

9014692

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1648

1129

Will Harriet Tubman replace Andrew Jackson on the $20 by the end of 2030?

Nov 10, 2:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.72%chance

208476

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15356

6525

US and Mexico engage in armed conflict before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:50 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

12.52%chance

134737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2644

378

OPQA (OpenAI-proof QA) hits 20% before 2027

May 30, 7:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.03%chance

164138

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7045

5144

Will Levi's discord server have 20+ members at the end of July?

Jul 20, 6:51 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

82.52%chance

131812

OptionVotes

NO

YES

293

133

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