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Prediction markets for 20

China's rebar failure rate below 20% in 2025 national quality check?

Nov 26, 6:18 AMJul 29, 10:59 PM

96.61%chance

1281858733

OptionVotes

NO

YES

534090

18748

[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.72%chance

328176718

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5424

4941

Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?

Feb 20, 6:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.79%chance

137103859

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10162

1354

Alcatraz holds ten federal inmates for one week before January 20, 2029?

May 4, 11:58 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

9.3%chance

11643385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31251

3205

Will both Donald Trump and Joe Biden be alive on January 20, 2029 (noon ET)?

Nov 16, 5:04 AMJan 21, 5:01 AM

61.01%chance

21439601

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2073

1972

Will Joe Biden (born 20 November 1942) outlive Vladimir Putin (born 7 October 1952)?

Mar 31, 9:14 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16.59%chance

14725584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8788

5752

Will Jim Fund's assets be worth more than $20,000,000 on Jan1'29

Nov 18, 5:55 AMNov 7, 10:59 AM

21.15%chance

920640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15064

108

Will Manifold "be around" in 20 years?

Sep 6, 1:08 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

64.56%chance

8612333

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1636

1267

Will Harriet Tubman replace Andrew Jackson on the $20 by the end of 2030?

Nov 10, 2:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.4%chance

198426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15475

6475

US and Mexico engage in armed conflict before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:50 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

12.52%chance

134737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2644

378

Will Levi's discord server have 20+ members at the end of July?

Jul 20, 6:51 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

82.52%chance

131812

OptionVotes

NO

YES

293

133

"Donald Trump US president at any point between Jan 21, 2029, and Jan 20, 2033?"

Apr 1, 4:08 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

18.66%chance

15955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3233

2424

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