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Prediction markets for 20

Will Donald Trump have a positive net favorability rate on December 20, 2025, according to 538?

Jan 22, 4:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.45%chance

51167440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22780

8792

Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?

Feb 20, 6:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.26%chance

13296595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5910

1522

Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 (less strict criteria market)

Jul 2, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.7%chance

21477630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4631

2534

Will Trump pardon Luigi Mangione prior to Jan 20, 2029?

Jan 26, 3:07 AMFeb 25, 7:59 AM

3.7%chance

4671471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

45366

5620

Alcatraz holds ten federal inmates for one week before January 20, 2029?

May 4, 11:58 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

9.89%chance

11136211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30182

3313

Will both Donald Trump and Joe Biden be alive on January 20, 2029?

Nov 16, 5:04 AMJan 21, 5:01 AM

34.88%chance

19030822

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3029

1091

Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 that win film festival awards [See link to better qu]

Mar 28, 9:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.18%chance

10728934

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4039

1127

Will Joe Biden (born 20 November 1942) outlive Vladimir Putin (born 7 October 1952)?

Mar 31, 9:14 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15.22%chance

14624745

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9509

5616

Tesla completes 20,000+ rideshare rides per week before April 2026?

May 1, 12:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.65%chance

2415399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1241

806

Will Manifold "be around" in 20 years?

Sep 6, 1:08 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

50.42%chance

8111618

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1614

1163

US and Mexico engage in armed conflict before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:50 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

12%chance

124728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2708

369

Will Harriet Tubman replace Andrew Jackson on the $20 by the end of 2030?

Nov 10, 2:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.19%chance

132736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11683

8566

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