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Prediction markets for 20

[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.63%chance

401281850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15578

2885

Will Trump pardon Luigi Mangione prior to Jan 20, 2029?

Jan 26, 3:07 AMFeb 22, 7:59 AM

1.09%chance

58154931

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117779

4179

Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?

Feb 20, 6:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.94%chance

140106268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7593

1442

Will both Donald Trump and Joe Biden be alive on January 20, 2029 (noon ET)?

Nov 16, 5:04 AMJan 21, 5:01 AM

56%chance

24064684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2142

1833

Alcatraz holds ten federal inmates for one week before January 20, 2029?

May 4, 11:58 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

8.4%chance

11746291

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33053

3031

Will Joe Biden (born 20 November 1942) outlive Vladimir Putin (born 7 October 1952)?

Mar 31, 9:14 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

18.13%chance

14927430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8092

5898

OPQA (OpenAI-proof QA) hits 20% before 2027

May 30, 7:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.61%chance

1723452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10891

3200

Will Jim Fund's assets be worth more than $20,000,000 on Jan1'29

Nov 18, 5:55 AMNov 7, 10:59 AM

19.69%chance

920668

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15088

92

Will Manifold "be around" in 20 years?

Sep 6, 1:08 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

47.35%chance

9014742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1698

1083

Will Harriet Tubman replace Andrew Jackson on the $20 by the end of 2030?

Nov 10, 2:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.3%chance

2414348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19799

5066

US and Mexico engage in armed conflict before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:50 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

12.52%chance

134737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2644

378

Arctic sea ice extent on Nov 20, 2026 (NSIDC daily value)?

Oct 22, 8:56 PMNov 19, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 9.5 million km²

9.5 to under 9.9

9.9 to under 10.3

10.3 million km² or above

25

25

25

25

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