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Prediction markets for 2002

Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?

Sep 8, 10:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.01%chance

546314746

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6190

3096

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

1.83%chance

9534412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7356

561

Which of the following movies is the next 25 years most likely to resemble?

Aug 18, 1:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

655182

OptionProbability

Idiocracy (2006)

Other

Her (2013)

Interstellar (2014)

Children of Men (2006)

Gattaca (1997)

WALL-E (2008)

Ready Player One (2018)

The Matrix (1999)

Minority Report (2002)

The Terminator (2004)

Blade Runner (1982)

The Terminator (1984)

The Lives of Others (2006)

Back to the Future Part II (1989)

Elysium (2013)

Ad Astra (2019)

2001: A Space Odyssey (1968)

Wag the Dog (1997)

32

23

20

4

4

4

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will the news identify a 2002 SARS level outbreak event as having been caused by an open weight AI model by EOY 2028?

Jul 28, 8:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.04%chance

103512

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3634

275

Will there be a new youngest winner for the Academy Awards Oscar for Best Actor by April 1st 2029? (29 years old)

Dec 13, 5:48 AMApr 2, 3:59 AM

28.63%chance

251287

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1686

440

Any change to the list of 15 US Government executive departments through mid 2027

Jan 2, 8:12 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

30.77%chance

9959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1500

667

Will the Taleyarkhan bubble fusion result replicate by 2044?

Feb 25, 10:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.75%chance

19726

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1125

952

When will 20021 come out?

Apr 2, 1:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5636

OptionProbability

Other

2026

2024

2025

83

15

1

1

Will the 500 euro note be reissued by 2030?

Jan 12, 5:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.69%chance

25477

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1277

880

Will My 2002 Honda Accord Break Down Within 1 Year Of Purchase?

Mar 17, 7:28 PMMar 17, 7:26 PM

42.67%chance

7242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1159

863

Will Malta win Eurovision before Cyprus?

Aug 25, 4:27 PMSep 2, 6:59 AM

45.65%chance

435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

92

How many count of indictment will Jared Leto face 2026?

Jul 29, 7:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

223

OptionProbability

0

4 - 6

7 - 9

10 - 12

13 - 15

1 - 3

Above 15

19

14

14

14

14

12

12

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