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Prediction markets for 2020

Will US life expectancy recover from its 2020-2021 "Covid" drop to exceed its 2019 level by 2029?

Oct 24, 3:48 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

80%chance

4624367

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3882

2007

Will Manifold consider the 2020 election “free and fair” at the end of 2025?

Jan 20, 7:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.72%chance

316182

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1983

504

Bitcoin will outperform gold from Jan 1 2020 to Jan 1 2030.

Feb 12, 5:16 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

31.24%chance

143205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1031

956

Will a company formed after 2020 be worth > 1 Trillion by 2030?

Jan 23, 3:54 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.23%chance

482573

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

970

If Russia does NOT annex Ukraine before 2024, will Ukraine's 2030 real GDP be over 180bn USD (in 2020 US dollars)?

Feb 23, 8:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.16%chance

231866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1129

920

Does Biden have a neurological disorder in the years 2020-2024?

Dec 15, 7:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.94%chance

331381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1595

524

Will a cat born before 2020 live to be ≥150 years old?

Aug 20, 3:03 PMAug 21, 9:59 PM

18.83%chance

241121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

776

Will Detroit have a higher population in 2030 than 2020?

Jan 4, 9:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.92%chance

18836

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

931

Will Y Combinator accept fewer companies into its accelerator between 2028-2030 than between 2020-2022?

Jan 5, 8:09 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.17%chance

23774

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

923

Will New York City's population be at least as high in 2030 as it was in 2020?

Oct 7, 12:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.97%chance

16382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

970

Will this “Trump 2020” sign still be up in 2028?

Jul 5, 2:33 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

45.2%chance

9382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

908

Will Yann LeCun be Yann LeCun again? (2020-2030)

Feb 6, 3:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.67%chance

12166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

961

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