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Prediction markets for 2020

Will US life expectancy recover from its 2020-2021 "Covid" drop to exceed its 2019 level by 2029?

Oct 24, 3:48 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

80.27%chance

4726263

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3926

1996

Bitcoin will outperform gold from Jan 1 2020 to Jan 1 2030.

Feb 12, 5:16 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

31.24%chance

143205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1031

956

Will a company formed after 2020 be worth > 1 Trillion by 2030?

Jan 23, 3:54 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.26%chance

482602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1031

973

If Russia does NOT annex Ukraine before 2024, will Ukraine's 2030 real GDP be over 180bn USD (in 2020 US dollars)?

Feb 23, 8:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.16%chance

231866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1129

920

Will the decade from 2020 through the end of 2029 become known as the "Warring Twenties"?

Dec 19, 3:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.55%chance

251566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1133

886

Does Biden have a neurological disorder in the years 2020-2024?

Dec 15, 7:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.94%chance

331381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1595

524

Will Detroit have a higher population in 2030 than 2020?

Jan 4, 9:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.28%chance

19886

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1125

911

Will Y Combinator accept fewer companies into its accelerator between 2028-2030 than between 2020-2022?

Jan 5, 8:09 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.17%chance

23774

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

923

Will New York City's population be at least as high in 2030 as it was in 2020?

Oct 7, 12:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.05%chance

17482

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1105

875

Will this “Trump 2020” sign still be up in 2028?

Jul 5, 2:33 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

40.94%chance

9482

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

833

Will the Number of IoT Devices Really Triple Between 2020 and 2030?

Apr 19, 1:18 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

64.26%chance

18414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1129

914

Will Yann LeCun be Yann LeCun again? (2020-2030)

Feb 6, 3:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.06%chance

15386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

927

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