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Top stories

US Domestic Policy

California Senator’s Census Warning Rekindles Fight Over Non-Citizen Counts

Authors

6

6 months ago

Prediction markets for 2020 Census

Unemployment rate for recent US college grads exceeds 25% before 2030?

May 30, 8:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.47%chance

57143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8029

896

How many top-50 US metros will Waymo serve at the end of 2026?

Sep 9, 1:51 AMJan 16, 4:59 AM

203323

OptionProbability

9 to 16

<=8

17 to 24

>=25

73

19

7

1

California Exodus: Will California lose inhabitants between 2010 and 2030?

Nov 11, 10:03 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

37.58%chance

281696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1378

717

Will Texas pass California in population by 2030?

Aug 7, 2:23 PMFeb 8, 5:59 AM

13.28%chance

251473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1252

942

Will the foreign population of Japan exceed 5 million people by the 2025 census?

Mar 20, 11:54 PMDec 31, 1:00 PM

6.03%chance

11666

OptionVotes

YES

NO

691

91

Will the majority of US households be "coupled" households in 2030?

Sep 11, 9:02 PMMay 26, 6:59 AM

88.3%chance

7489

OptionVotes

NO

YES

288

70

Will New York City's population be at least as high in 2030 as it was in 2020?

Oct 7, 12:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.97%chance

16382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

970

Will there be a large protest across US based on a political/ economical/ social issue?

Sep 30, 10:27 AMMar 31, 9:58 AM

75.79%chance

9335

OptionVotes

NO

YES

177

57

Will the population of Lahaina, Hawaii, exceed 10,000 in the 2030 census?

Aug 30, 3:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

43.92%chance

7124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1194

1087

Will the 2030 NYC census be less than the 2020 census?

Aug 14, 12:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.48%chance

695

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

91

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 16th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

285

OptionProbability

Melissa Hurtado (incumbent)

Mike Boudreaux

Other

79

10

10

Will the population of Mississippi reach 3 million people before 2050?

Sep 27, 6:42 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

73.9%chance

470

OptionVotes

NO

YES

168

59

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