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Top stories

US Domestic Policy

California Senator’s Census Warning Rekindles Fight Over Non-Citizen Counts

Authors

6

10 months ago

Prediction markets for 2020 Census

Unemployment rate for recent US college grads exceeds 25% before 2030?

May 30, 8:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.18%chance

77331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5565

1084

How many top-50 US metros will Waymo serve at the end of 2026?

Sep 9, 1:51 AMJan 16, 4:59 AM

234449

OptionProbability

9 to 16

17 to 24

<=8

>=25

79

13

6

2

Unemployment rate for recent US college grads exceeds 25% before 2035?

Feb 15, 11:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29%chance

163670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2603

1623

How many top-50 US metros will Waymo serve at EOY 2027?

Mar 19, 9:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

92607

OptionProbability

20-29

10-19

30-39

<10

40+

49

20

20

6

4

California Exodus: Will California lose inhabitants between 2010 and 2030?

Nov 11, 10:03 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

37.58%chance

281696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1378

717

Will Texas pass California in population by 2030?

Aug 7, 2:23 PMFeb 8, 5:59 AM

13.28%chance

251473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1252

942

Will the foreign population of Japan exceed 5 million people by the 2025 census?

Mar 20, 11:54 PMDec 31, 1:00 PM

4.9%chance

12876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

801

84

Will New York City's population be at least as high in 2030 as it was in 2020?

Oct 7, 12:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.05%chance

17482

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1105

875

Will the population of Lahaina, Hawaii, exceed 10,000 in the 2030 census?

Aug 30, 3:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

43.92%chance

7124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1194

1087

Will Kansas City Missouri have a population of over 550 thousand people in 2030 as reported by the US Census?

Nov 29, 4:43 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

48.61%chance

5119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

77

Will the 2030 NYC census be less than the 2020 census?

Aug 14, 12:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.48%chance

695

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

91

Will the population of Mississippi reach 3 million people before 2050?

Sep 27, 6:42 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

73.9%chance

470

OptionVotes

NO

YES

168

59

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