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Prediction markets for 2024

Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?

Feb 9, 1:29 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

1%chance

14791955444

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194427

2925

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize (v1, 2024 dataset) be claimed by end of 2025?

Jun 11, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3.05%chance

294872977

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58819

2107

If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?

Jan 24, 4:35 AMNov 8, 6:32 AM

22.93%chance

365178360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2198

1216

Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?

Jan 22, 3:39 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

99.01%chance

38131073

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129586

2189

Will I believe 2025 is a bigger news year than 2024?

Jan 4, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.13%chance

8267259

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17418

4334

Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?

Jan 22, 5:29 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3.93%chance

3760013

OptionVotes

YES

NO

53434

4038

Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?

Jan 22, 9:50 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

14.44%chance

5527676

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24289

3154

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2024?

May 11, 9:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.75%chance

3623586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10465

9846

Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?

Jan 22, 5:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.06%chance

2313941

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14715

7254

Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in Nov. 2025 than it was in Nov. 2024

Jan 22, 9:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.43%chance

128234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15509

5886

If Trump or other Republican wins in 2024, how many cabinet level departments will be eliminated before the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 12:20 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

143600

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3

More than 3

52

28

8

7

4

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.22%chance

213184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11698

8549

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