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Prediction markets for 2024

Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?

Feb 9, 1:29 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

1.77%chance

14781851799

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137497

3691

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize (v1, 2024 dataset) be claimed by end of 2025?

Jun 11, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

15.89%chance

286686677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22659

4871

If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?

Jan 24, 4:35 AMNov 8, 6:32 AM

36.48%chance

352167970

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1531

1433

Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?

Jan 22, 3:39 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

88.28%chance

3136946

OptionVotes

NO

YES

25582

5728

Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?

Jan 22, 5:29 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.33%chance

3421610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16274

7680

Will I believe 2025 is a bigger news year than 2024?

Jan 4, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

64.52%chance

4515811

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11214

9228

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2024?

May 11, 9:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

3211673

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12020

5328

Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?

Jan 22, 9:50 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.6%chance

4410156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15070

5866

Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?

Jan 22, 5:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.66%chance

167337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14113

7510

Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in Nov. 2025 than it was in Nov. 2024

Jan 22, 9:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.88%chance

86079

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13368

7042

If Trump or other Republican wins in 2024, how many cabinet level departments will be eliminated before the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 12:20 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

143600

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3

More than 3

54

25

9

7

5

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.34%chance

192825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12162

8222

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