2024 News

If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?

Jan 24, 4:35 AMNov 8, 6:32 AM

21.05%chance

371186698

OptionVotes

YES

2361

1171

If Trump wins in 2024, how will it affect the transition of power after 2028 election?

Jun 10, 2:47 AMJan 31, 7:59 AM

12543843

OptionProbability

6. Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028 and assumes office

5. Trump wins in 2024 and the candidate endorsed by Trump wins in 2028

2. Trump wins in 2024 and dies in office or is incapacitated

7. Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028, on Jan 20 some states and/or federal agencies recognize one candidate, while others — another

3. Trump wins in 2024, election process in 2028 is significantly changed

8. Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028, but power transition doesn't happen on schedule

Other

1. Trump doesn't win in 2024

4. Trump wins in 2024, there is no agreement among independent observers as to who wins the election in 2028

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

59.06%chance

9213274

OptionVotes

YES

1201

833

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.51%chance

247237

OptionVotes

YES

15091

6626

Will the next U.S. President (elected in Nov. 2024 & inaugurated in Jan. 2025) serve their full 4-year term?

Feb 2, 3:07 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

75.74%chance

715706

OptionVotes

YES

1788

1096

If Trump or other Republican wins in 2024, how many cabinet level departments will be eliminated before the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 12:20 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

153650

OptionProbability

More than 3

Will the EU introduce any form of direct taxation during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 19, 2:41 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

22.43%chance

193648

OptionVotes

YES

2117

1093

Will Trump serve a full second term (after winning in 2024)?

Dec 30, 5:14 AMJan 19, 11:00 PM

75.74%chance

473105

OptionVotes

YES

991

988

If Trump wins in 2024, will any members of his Cabinet be former Trump administration Cabinet members?

Mar 13, 6:06 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM

15.3%chance

142273

OptionVotes

YES

2824

432

If Trump is re-elected in 2024, will he try to hold onto power after 2028?

Jan 10, 7:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28.7%chance

261864

OptionVotes

YES

1013

926

Will there be an EU convention to amend the treaties during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 18, 2:57 PMJun 9, 9:59 PM

44.92%chance

71533

OptionVotes

YES

1584

1422

Will the NIH's annual budget in 2028 be at least 50% lower than its 2024 budget in nominal dollars?

Dec 17, 4:11 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

33.75%chance

91338

OptionVotes

YES

1746

1278

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Prediction markets for 2024

Prediction markets for 2024

If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?

If Trump wins in 2024, how will it affect the transition of power after 2028 election?

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Will the next U.S. President (elected in Nov. 2024 & inaugurated in Jan. 2025) serve their full 4-year term?

If Trump or other Republican wins in 2024, how many cabinet level departments will be eliminated before the end of 2028?

Will the EU introduce any form of direct taxation during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

Will Trump serve a full second term (after winning in 2024)?

If Trump wins in 2024, will any members of his Cabinet be former Trump administration Cabinet members?

If Trump is re-elected in 2024, will he try to hold onto power after 2028?

Will there be an EU convention to amend the treaties during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

Will the NIH's annual budget in 2028 be at least 50% lower than its 2024 budget in nominal dollars?

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