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Prediction markets for 2024 Impact Report

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will NYC subway trains (on any line) still have conductors in 2035?

May 25, 12:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

86.87%chance

8731

OptionVotes

NO

YES

257

39

Will the Alaska 737 MAX depressurization incident substantially impact Alaska’s acquisition of Hawaiian airlines?

Jan 7, 2:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20%chance

18623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1088

951

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.7%chance

15616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1403

713

Stanford's legacy admission rate drops by >25% in 2024 admissions cycle compared to 2023

Nov 26, 4:51 AMSep 1, 11:00 PM

33.15%chance

3420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1420

704

Will Ethereum price pass $4100 by October 1st?

Jul 17, 11:29 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

65.16%chance

9334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

137

73

Yuan at 8 dollars in 2025?

Apr 8, 12:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.02%chance

6296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

Large-scale internet blackout in G20 country by EOY2025?

Jun 6, 12:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.98%chance

7213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

52

Will the Nintendo Switch outsell the Sony PlayStation 2?

May 27, 6:33 AMJan 1, 7:32 AM

35.15%chance

6171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

77

Has PLA General He Weidong (何卫东) been arrested?

Mar 18, 5:01 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

69.23%chance

350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

67

Morning in Trump's America: Which industry sectors will have job growth in 2025?

Dec 30, 7:12 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

535

OptionProbability

Financial Activities

Manufacturing

Mining and Logging

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

Information

Professional and Business Services

Private Education and Health Services

Leisure and Hospitality

Construction

Government

80

69

50

50

50

50

50

50

31

20

How many EF4+ tornadoes will have hit the US by the end of 2025

May 20, 10:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

423

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