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2025 Budget News

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Prediction markets for 2025 Budget

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

59.04%chance

194268635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5839

3348

Will Trump and Elon cut the Federal Budget by more than $1 Trillion/yr by the end of 2025?

Nov 10, 5:29 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

0.51%chance

16945052

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13977

72

Will the UK introduce a wealth tax by end of 2025?

Jul 8, 11:29 AMDec 18, 11:59 PM

1.32%chance

11042579

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31869

1146

When will PEPFAR funding be unfrozen?

Mar 15, 10:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5838128

OptionProbability

After 2025 or not at all

July-December

April

May or June

March

80

11

3

3

2

ICE spends at least $25.5 billion in 2025? (budget estimate: $30 billion)

Jul 7, 4:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.18%chance

19929

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1782

520

Spain’s 2026 budget approved by Dec 31, 2025?

Sep 19, 8:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.23%chance

6469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

426

23

Will the 2025 US Budget cut Social Security and Medicare by at least 5%

Nov 13, 9:04 PMDec 21, 6:59 AM

4.49%chance

6392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

461

22

for fiscal year 2025, Canadian NSERC grants to total to at least 10% of total US NSF grant budget?"

Mar 23, 11:20 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

47.56%chance

3377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

China's 2025 defense budget increases more than 7.5%?

May 8, 11:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.88%chance

9182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

72

Will the U.S. military budget decrease by 10%+ during the 2025-2029 presidential term?

Feb 14, 1:15 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

21.22%chance

7161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

193

52

Will Taiwan's Defence Budget rise to 2% of GDP in 2025?

May 8, 1:24 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

83.26%chance

385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

155

33

Will Taiwan's Defence Budget rise to 2.5% of GDP in 2025?

May 8, 1:33 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

48.21%chance

340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

71

69

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