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2025 Budget News

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Prediction markets for 2025 Budget

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

53.15%chance

277452880

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6256

2822

Will Trump balance the U.S. budget before his term ends?

Feb 7, 9:09 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

2.63%chance

7429608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6082

164

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

Oct 10, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.8%chance

365077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3049

331

Will the FY27 NASA Budget be larger than FY25?

Jan 3, 3:19 AMOct 1, 11:59 PM

85%chance

253109

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2281

217

If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.8 billion tons in 2025?

Mar 9, 9:37 PMNov 2, 7:59 AM

12.51%chance

262814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2341

623

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Feb 6, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.33%chance

202069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1516

660

ICE spends at least $25.5 billion in 2025? (budget estimate: $30 billion)

Jul 7, 4:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.97%chance

231844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2582

342

Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?

Feb 4, 5:47 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

44.49%chance

61314

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1192

814

Will the White House announce deportations over 1 million by EOY 2027

Feb 9, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.72%chance

11469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1232

812

What will be the Bank of England interest rate on Jan 1, 2030?

Feb 25, 12:45 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

4237

OptionProbability

2.00% to 2.75%

3.00% to 3.75%

4.00% to 4.75%

5.00% to 5.75%

below 1%

1.00% to 1.75%

6% or higher

22

22

16

13

10

10

7

Will the U.S. military budget decrease by 10%+ during the 2025-2029 presidential term?

Feb 14, 1:15 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

21.22%chance

7161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

193

52

Is a major protest(s) expected to occur in Indonesia before September 2026?

Mar 17, 6:53 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

34%chance

4138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

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