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2025 Budget News

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Prediction markets for 2025 Budget

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

90.65%chance

336646894

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13095

3398

Will Trump balance the U.S. budget before his term ends?

Feb 7, 9:09 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

2.63%chance

7429608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6082

164

If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.8 billion tons in 2025?

Mar 9, 9:37 PMNov 2, 7:59 AM

2.41%chance

287822

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7349

337

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

Oct 10, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.8%chance

365077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3049

331

Will the FY27 NASA Budget be larger than FY25?

Jan 3, 3:19 AMOct 1, 11:59 PM

72%chance

555027

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1730

362

Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?

Feb 4, 5:47 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

58.12%chance

113096

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2211

1833

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Feb 6, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.33%chance

202069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1516

660

ICE spends at least $25.5 billion in 2025? (budget estimate: $30 billion)

Jul 7, 4:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.97%chance

231844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2582

342

Will the White House announce deportations over 1 million by EOY 2027

Feb 9, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.79%chance

12669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1432

698

Chicago declares bankruptcy by 2035?

Sep 21, 11:22 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.49%chance

7169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

141

71

Will the U.S. military budget decrease by 10%+ during the 2025-2029 presidential term?

Feb 14, 1:15 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

21.22%chance

7161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

193

52

What will the US top 1% post-tax/transfer income share be in 2025?

Feb 23, 2:14 AMJun 29, 3:59 AM

72.98%chance

175

OptionProbability

NO

YES

175

43

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