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Top stories

Democrats Debate 2028 Primary Calendar as Iowa Eyes Rogue Caucus Amid 4.5 Million Voter Deficit and 2030 Census Shift

Democrats Debate 2028 Primary Calendar as Iowa Eyes Rogue Caucus Amid 4.5 Million Voter Deficit and 2030 Census Shift

Authors

20

3 months ago

Louisiana Urges Supreme Court to Strike VRA’s Section 2, End Race-Based Maps

Louisiana Urges Supreme Court to Strike VRA’s Section 2, End Race-Based Maps

Authors

14

3 months ago

Prediction markets for 2030 Census

Unemployment rate for recent US college grads exceeds 25% before 2030?

May 30, 8:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.76%chance

55393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6279

1018

California Exodus: Will California lose inhabitants between 2010 and 2030?

Nov 11, 10:03 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

37.61%chance

271695

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1348

703

The next census in 2030 will show an increase in United States birth rate.

Sep 30, 3:40 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

24.17%chance

131463

OptionVotes

NO

YES

988

956

Will Texas pass California in population by 2030?

Aug 7, 2:23 PMFeb 8, 5:59 AM

12.27%chance

241381

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1346

924

Which 3 US cities will see the largest raw increase in population over the 20s, as judged by the 2030 census?

Aug 9, 4:11 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

81029

OptionProbability

Austin, Texas

Fort Worth, TX

Houston, TX

San Antonio, TX

Phoenix, AZ

Dallas, TX

Charlotte, NC

NYC, NY

Seattle, WA

Atlanta, Georgia

Minneapolis, Minnesota

Denver, CO

Boston, MA

Detroit, Michigan

Los Angeles, CA

Miami, FL

Washington, DC

San Jose, CA

San Diego, CA

Columbus, OH

San Francisco, CA

Chicago, IL

Port St. Lucie, FL

Huntsville, Alabama

Boise, ID

Albuquerque, NM

Fort Myers, Florida

Berkeley, CA

Philadelphia, PA

Cleveland, OH

St Louis, MO

Salt Lake City, UT

Tallahassee, Florida

79

74

73

73

68

66

46

26

20

16

16

16

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

11

10

10

9

7

6

6

5

5

5

5

5

5

4

2030: % of "working age adults w/ serious difficulty remembering, making decisions" in US Census Survey? (long covid)

Jan 22, 1:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11572

OptionProbability

>= 4.5%, < 7% (post-2020 trend fit)

>= 7% (significantly worse than post-2020 trend)

>=3%, <4.5% (roughly current range)

< 3% (pre-2020 trend fit)

47

43

8

2

Will New York City's population be at least as high in 2030 as it was in 2020?

Oct 7, 12:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.97%chance

16382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

970

Will there be a new census before 2030?

Aug 7, 4:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.08%chance

10352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1198

835

Will Trump force the USA to take a new census by the end of 2028?

Aug 14, 3:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.89%chance

10312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

678

556

Will the population of Lahaina, Hawaii, exceed 10,000 in the 2030 census?

Aug 30, 3:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

43.92%chance

7124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1194

1087

Will Kansas City Missouri have a population of over 550 thousand people in 2030 as reported by the US Census?

Nov 29, 4:43 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

48.61%chance

5119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

77

Will the 2030 NYC census be less than the 2020 census?

Aug 14, 12:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.48%chance

695

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

91

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