24 News

will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]

Oct 27, 5:21 PMOct 28, 6:59 AM

1.17%chance

6221958

OptionVotes

YES

9251

110

This market resolves YES once the probability has remained below 1% for 24 hours.

Oct 6, 7:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.06%chance

6610631

OptionVotes

YES

984

788

Will 50% or more of AWS developers stop coding for AWS in the next 24 months?

Sep 2, 2:49 PMSep 10, 2:59 AM

8.2%chance

405005

OptionVotes

YES

3346

299

Will @Tumbles be more than 24 ___ late to pay back a loan?

Jun 9, 11:15 PMDec 31, 11:35 PM

273433

OptionProbability

Hours

Days

Weeks

Fortnights

OpenAI models released to the public

Months

Tumbles-related prediction markets (will be N/A'd of no clarification is given by Jun 18, 2025.)

New loans taken (since this market's creation, only counts loans created while a loan is due)

Years

Asses eaten (only ones since market creation can count. Tumbles calls the shots on how this one is operationalized.)

Manifests (2025's is 1st)

U.S. National Elections (2024's is 0th, national midterms count)

U.S. Presidents (Trump's 2nd term is 1st)

Canadian National Elections (2025's is 0th)

Decades

100

Will Trump end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 months of his inauguration?

Apr 2, 9:17 AMJan 19, 11:59 PM

27.92%chance

252636

OptionVotes

YES

1607

622

Will Grand Theft Auto 6 earn more money in 24 hours than GTA 5?

Oct 22, 1:03 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

92.73%chance

171890

OptionVotes

YES

2198

836

Will Grand Theft Auto 6 earn more money in 24 hours than GTA 5?(inflation adjusted)

Oct 22, 1:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.43%chance

15831

OptionVotes

YES

1530

864

In yottaFLOPs (10^24), how much compute will GPT-4 be trained with?

Nov 15, 6:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.59%chance

15791

OptionProbability

YES

1071

970

Will any Macbook have >=24 CPU cores before 2030?

Oct 27, 12:00 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

51%chance

7634

OptionVotes

YES

1020

980

Manifold announces domain change to manifold.com before August 24, 2027

Jul 27, 4:25 AMAug 23, 11:59 PM

38%chance

8303

OptionVotes

YES

1277

783

this market resolves yes if over 98%, no if under 2%, for 24 consecutive hours

Jun 8, 7:00 PMDec 30, 6:56 PM

48%chance

19272

OptionVotes

YES

104

Will jose luis ricon's brain still calculate 10^24 or more FLOPS in 2040?

Apr 11, 8:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.68%chance

427

OptionVotes

YES

105

24 News

Prediction markets for 24

Prediction markets for 24

Prediction markets for 24

will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]

This market resolves YES once the probability has remained below 1% for 24 hours.

Will 50% or more of AWS developers stop coding for AWS in the next 24 months?

Will @Tumbles be more than 24 ___ late to pay back a loan?

Will Trump end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 months of his inauguration?

Will Grand Theft Auto 6 earn more money in 24 hours than GTA 5?

Will Grand Theft Auto 6 earn more money in 24 hours than GTA 5?(inflation adjusted)

In yottaFLOPs (10^24), how much compute will GPT-4 be trained with?

Will any Macbook have >=24 CPU cores before 2030?

Manifold announces domain change to manifold.com before August 24, 2027

this market resolves yes if over 98%, no if under 2%, for 24 consecutive hours

Will jose luis ricon's brain still calculate 10^24 or more FLOPS in 2040?

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