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Prediction markets for 24

will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]

Oct 27, 5:21 PMOct 28, 6:59 AM

1.17%chance

6121956

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9249

110

This market resolves YES once the probability has remained below 1% for 24 hours.

Oct 6, 7:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53%chance

6410425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1001

768

Will 50% or more of AWS developers stop coding for AWS in the next 24 months?

Sep 2, 2:49 PMSep 10, 2:59 AM

10.39%chance

384595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2936

341

Will Trump end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 months of his inauguration?

Apr 2, 9:17 AMJan 19, 11:59 PM

15.14%chance

222276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2368

422

Will Grand Theft Auto 6 earn more money in 24 hours than GTA 5?

Oct 22, 1:03 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

92.73%chance

171890

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2198

836

Will Grand Theft Auto 6 earn more money in 24 hours than GTA 5?(inflation adjusted)

Oct 22, 1:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.43%chance

15831

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1530

864

In yottaFLOPs (10^24), how much compute will GPT-4 be trained with?

Nov 15, 6:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.59%chance

15791

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1071

970

Will any Macbook have >=24 CPU cores before 2030?

Oct 27, 12:00 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

51%chance

7634

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

980

Will there be a prion disease outbreak in the United States before 2028 that kills more than 24 people?

Oct 7, 9:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.03%chance

6303

OptionVotes

YES

NO

339

30

Manifold announces domain change to manifold.com before August 24, 2027

Jul 27, 4:25 AMAug 23, 11:59 PM

38.33%chance

7294

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1268

788

this market resolves yes if over 98%, no if under 2%, for 24 consecutive hours

Jun 8, 7:00 PMDec 30, 6:56 PM

48%chance

19272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

Will Grand Theft Auto 6 make more than $1.2 billion within 24 hours of it's release?

Dec 6, 2:56 AMDec 13, 4:59 AM

33.79%chance

11264

OptionVotes

YES

NO

214

141

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