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Prediction markets for 24

will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]

Oct 27, 5:21 PMOct 28, 6:59 AM

8.67%chance

5611720

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3268

310

This market resolves YES once the probability has remained below 1% for 24 hours.

Oct 6, 7:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52%chance

619077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

750

Donald Trump will say the N-Word on February 24 during his State of the Union address before the U.S. Congress.

Feb 2, 9:54 PMFeb 24, 11:59 PM

1.97%chance

224666

OptionVotes

YES

NO

706

14

Will 50% or more of AWS developers stop coding for AWS in the next 24 months?

Sep 2, 2:49 PMSep 10, 2:59 AM

10.39%chance

384595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2936

341

Will Grand Theft Auto 6 earn more money in 24 hours than GTA 5?

Oct 22, 1:03 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

92.73%chance

171890

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2198

836

Will Grand Theft Auto 6 earn more money in 24 hours than GTA 5?(inflation adjusted)

Oct 22, 1:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.43%chance

15831

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1530

864

In yottaFLOPs (10^24), how much compute will GPT-4 be trained with?

Nov 15, 6:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.59%chance

15791

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1071

970

Will any Macbook have >=24 CPU cores before 2030?

Oct 27, 12:00 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

46.91%chance

6554

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1064

940

Trump's approval rating (Gallup) will fall to 24% or below before the end of his second term

Jan 14, 11:22 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

33.62%chance

18356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

141

71

Manifold announces domain change to manifold.com before August 24, 2027

Jul 27, 4:25 AMAug 23, 11:59 PM

38.33%chance

7294

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1268

788

this market resolves yes if over 98%, no if under 2%, for 24 consecutive hours

Jun 8, 7:00 PMDec 30, 6:56 PM

50.37%chance

17245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

24 months after Cannabis is rescheduled will the medical community develop an effective CHS diagnostic tests?

May 15, 5:02 AMApr 20, 9:20 PM

62.5%chance

130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

77

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