24 News

This market resolves YES once the probability has remained below 1% for 24 hours.

Oct 6, 7:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.1%chance

6710634

OptionVotes

YES

984

789

Will Trump end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 months of his inauguration?

Apr 2, 9:17 AMJan 19, 11:59 PM

6.31%chance

334892

OptionVotes

YES

3854

259

Will @Tumbles be more than 24 ___ late to pay back a loan?

Jun 9, 11:15 PMDec 31, 11:35 PM

303538

OptionProbability

Hours

Days

Weeks

Fortnights

OpenAI models released to the public

Months

Tumbles-related prediction markets (will be N/A'd of no clarification is given by Jun 18, 2025.)

Years

Asses eaten (only ones since market creation can count. Tumbles calls the shots on how this one is operationalized.)

New loans taken (since this market's creation, only counts loans created while a loan is due)

Manifests (2025's is 1st)

U.S. National Elections (2024's is 0th, national midterms count)

U.S. Presidents (Trump's 2nd term is 1st)

Canadian National Elections (2025's is 0th)

Decades

100

Will Grand Theft Auto 6 earn more money in 24 hours than GTA 5?

Oct 22, 1:03 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

92.73%chance

171890

OptionVotes

YES

2198

836

Any charges filed against the Border Patrol agent who shot and killed Alex Pretti? (Jan 24, Minneapolis)

Jan 24, 5:30 PMDec 31, 5:28 PM

231099

OptionProbability

No Charges

Manslaughter

Other / Lesser Charges

Civil Rights Violation

Murder

Will Grand Theft Auto 6 earn more money in 24 hours than GTA 5?(inflation adjusted)

Oct 22, 1:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.32%chance

16890

OptionVotes

YES

1520

866

In yottaFLOPs (10^24), how much compute will GPT-4 be trained with?

Nov 15, 6:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.59%chance

15791

OptionProbability

YES

1071

970

Will any Macbook have >=24 CPU cores before 2030?

Oct 27, 12:00 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.21%chance

8659

OptionVotes

YES

1045

957

Will a Democratic Senator say or post “glad he’s dead” within 24 hours of trumps death for ANY reason?

Mar 22, 8:12 AMMar 29, 8:11 AM

39.83%chance

14392

OptionVotes

YES

123

Will there be a prion disease outbreak in the United States before 2028 that kills more than 24 people?

Oct 7, 9:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.4%chance

8386

OptionVotes

YES

419

Manifold announces domain change to manifold.com before August 24, 2027

Jul 27, 4:25 AMAug 23, 11:59 PM

38%chance

8303

OptionVotes

YES

1277

783

this market resolves yes if over 98%, no if under 2%, for 24 consecutive hours

Jun 8, 7:00 PMDec 30, 6:56 PM

48%chance

19272

OptionVotes

YES

104

24 News

Prediction markets for 24

Prediction markets for 24

Prediction markets for 24

This market resolves YES once the probability has remained below 1% for 24 hours.

Will Trump end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 months of his inauguration?

Will @Tumbles be more than 24 ___ late to pay back a loan?

Will Grand Theft Auto 6 earn more money in 24 hours than GTA 5?

Any charges filed against the Border Patrol agent who shot and killed Alex Pretti? (Jan 24, Minneapolis)

Will Grand Theft Auto 6 earn more money in 24 hours than GTA 5?(inflation adjusted)

In yottaFLOPs (10^24), how much compute will GPT-4 be trained with?

Will any Macbook have >=24 CPU cores before 2030?

Will a Democratic Senator say or post “glad he’s dead” within 24 hours of trumps death for ANY reason?

Will there be a prion disease outbreak in the United States before 2028 that kills more than 24 people?

Manifold announces domain change to manifold.com before August 24, 2027

this market resolves yes if over 98%, no if under 2%, for 24 consecutive hours

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