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Prediction markets for 3T

Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true?

Jun 12, 12:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.45%chance

294806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1807

554

OpenAI 2028 revenue at $3T+

Apr 7, 10:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.21%chance

294340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2681

373

How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill increase the deficit?

Apr 19, 7:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52289

OptionProbability

$3T to $3.5T

$1.5T or fewer

$1.5T to $2T

$2T to $2.5T

$2.5T to $3T

$3.5T to $4T

$4T to $4.5T

$4.5T to $5T

$5T to $5.5T

$5.5T or more

99

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Which company will be the fifth to reach $3T valuation?

Aug 29, 6:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15750

OptionProbability

Google

Amazon

Facebook

Other

Saudi Aramco

TSMC

Berkshire Hathaway

Eli Lilly

35

31

10

9

6

4

3

2

Which company will be the fourth to reach $3T valuation?

Aug 29, 6:02 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8408

OptionProbability

Amazon

Google

Facebook

Other

TSMC

Saudi Aramco

Berkshire Hathaway

35

31

10

10

6

5

3

When will a language model be fine-tuned via self-play or expert iteration and achieve significant performance increase?

Dec 17, 4:47 PMJan 1, 4:47 PM

12.92%chance

14272

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1001

976

Will SpaceX reach $3T?

Jan 12, 7:31 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

24.19%chance

478

OptionVotes

YES

NO

151

87

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