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Prediction markets for 4th

Will the price of a Costco hot dog Combo raise above $1.50 by Star Wars Day 2028? (May 4th)

Dec 13, 5:56 AMMay 5, 3:59 AM

9.67%chance

194126

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1381

914

Will Eliezer and Gretta still be really into each other on October 4th, 2026?

Oct 4, 3:06 PMJul 5, 6:59 AM

68.01%chance

342442

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1498

617

Will the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) do anything meaningful by July 4th 2026?

Nov 22, 11:06 PMJul 5, 4:59 AM

92%chance

291629

OptionVotes

NO

YES

339

29

When will ClaudePlaysPokemon obtain the 4th badge (Rainbow Badge) from Erika?

Feb 26, 7:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

181326

OptionProbability

Not in 2025

July 2025

June 2025

August 2025

May 2025

September 2025

October 2025

November 2025

December 2025

March 2025

April 2025

February 2025

28

21

16

6

5

5

5

5

5

2

2

1

Will Smiling Friends be renewed for a 4th season by Adult Swim by the end of 2025?

Jun 14, 12:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.54%chance

12762

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1511

662

Will Trump serve any time in a jail or prison by July 4th, 2029, for any past or new convictions?

Jul 27, 3:31 PMJul 5, 3:59 AM

15.41%chance

12361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234

43

Will Cancer Be Ranked 4th or Lower Among the Leading Causes of Death in the US by 2050?

Aug 11, 9:43 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

41%chance

10296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

976

Will Cancer Be Ranked 4th or Lower Among the Leading Causes of Death in the US by 2035?

Aug 11, 9:19 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

45.34%chance

12271

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

971

Will the 4th passage of KRYPTOS be solved by 2028?

Apr 6, 12:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.24%chance

9128

OptionVotes

YES

NO

181

73

Will President Trump extend the DOGE Executive Order Agenda past the July 4th, 2026 deadline?

Mar 10, 8:25 PMJul 5, 3:59 AM

34.12%chance

685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

Will Gwern hit 4th base/a home run?

Jan 15, 10:49 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

64.22%chance

361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

101

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 4th State Senate district

Jun 18, 2:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

110

OptionProbability

Marie Alvarado-Gil (incumbent)

Jaron Brandon

Jeramy Young

Other

40

20

20

20

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