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Prediction markets for 50 First Dates

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.58%chance

47789897

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7410

4932

What is going on with David Grusch's UFO claims?

Sep 18, 12:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12877023

OptionProbability

Multiple counts of perjury

Massive fraud

Advanced human technology

Non-human intelligence

33

31

26

10

Who will make it to the second round of the Chilean presidential trial elections?

Jul 3, 7:44 PMNov 17, 2:00 AM

76671

OptionProbability

José Antonio Kast

Jeannette Jara

Evelyn Matthei

Franco Parisi

Johannes Kaiser

Ximena Rincón

Eduardo Artés

Félix González

Harold Mayne-Nicholls

Marco Enríquez-Ominami

89

72

35

5

3

1

1

1

1

1

Will Apple stock (AAPL) hit $500 before $50?

Feb 13, 12:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.36%chance

211734

OptionVotes

NO

YES

719

158

What is the One Piece?

Jul 10, 8:52 PMAug 9, 6:51 PM

241670

OptionProbability

None of the options submitted before the One Piece is revealed

Binks' Sake

A Poneglyph

Other

A single piece of currency (e.g. one coin)

An ancient tool which might not technically be a weapon.

The friends they made along the way

A giant pile of gold and jewels

An ancient weapon

Pineapples

A text, not written on a poneglyph

60

28

4

4

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

Will the first self-driving car company to deploy in 50 cities use an end-to-end approach?

Oct 6, 1:13 PMJan 14, 4:59 AM

72.59%chance

181548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1736

350

Will Amazon fully acquire, acqui‑hire, or own ≥ 50 % of Anthropic before 2029

Jun 10, 10:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.38%chance

131180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2180

459

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

When will we get the first successful video game that uses vid gen instead of a traditional engine?

May 25, 6:17 PMMay 26, 6:16 PM

8252

In which years will the US Congress hold UFO/UAP hearings?

Nov 15, 4:05 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

472

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

80

59

59

45

Supreme Court ruling on 3,50€ file copying fee - Will B. win the Federal Administrative Court case?

Dec 19, 10:14 PMJan 25, 10:59 PM

64.35%chance

365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

77

Will I be a cracked VFX artist in 2025? Mentor's response:

Jul 12, 5:27 AMSep 2, 6:59 AM

325

OptionProbability

Yes

...What?

66

55

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