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Prediction markets for 50 First Dates

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.63%chance

48090212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7394

4937

What is going on with David Grusch's UFO claims?

Sep 18, 12:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12977307

OptionProbability

Massive fraud

Multiple counts of perjury

Advanced human technology

Non-human intelligence

36

31

23

9

Which of xAI, Anthropic, and OpenAI will IPO first?

Dec 3, 12:54 AMDec 3, 12:54 AM

13828763

OptionProbability

xAI

Anthropic

OpenAI

71

17

12

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Jan 8, 2:26 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

226519

OptionProbability

Never or after 1/1/2030

1/1/2026-12/31/2026

1/1/2027-12/31/2027

1/1/2028-12/31/2028

1/1/2029-12/31/2029

Before 2026

68

8

7

7

7

0

When will the first 1000+ drone/missile strike hit Ukraine?

Jul 1, 10:07 AMAug 1, 10:01 AM

34659

OptionProbability

February 2026

March 2026

April 2026

May 2026

June 2026

July 2026

January 2026

August 2025

September 2025

October 2025

November 2025

December 2025

13

13

13

13

13

13

11

2

2

2

2

2

Will Amazon fully acquire, acqui‑hire, or own ≥ 50 % of Anthropic before 2029

Jun 10, 10:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.73%chance

162115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3045

328

What is the One Piece?

Jul 10, 8:52 PMAug 9, 6:51 PM

241720

OptionProbability

None of the options submitted before the One Piece is revealed

Binks' Sake

Other

A Poneglyph

A single piece of currency (e.g. one coin)

An ancient tool which might not technically be a weapon.

The friends they made along the way

A giant pile of gold and jewels

An ancient weapon

Pineapples

A text, not written on a poneglyph

68

22

4

3

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

Will the first self-driving car company to deploy in 50 cities use an end-to-end approach?

Oct 6, 1:13 PMJan 14, 4:59 AM

72.59%chance

181548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1736

350

When will we get the first successful video game that uses vid gen instead of a traditional engine?

May 25, 6:17 PMMay 26, 6:16 PM

111499

OptionProbability

2028

2029

2027

2026

2030

2025

33

28

21

11

6

1

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

In which years will the US Congress hold UFO/UAP hearings?

Nov 15, 4:05 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

4281

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

100

72

59

45

Will a fully AI-generated song reach Billboard Top 10 by 2027?

Dec 18, 3:20 AMJan 30, 3:59 PM

5180

OptionProbability

Jan-Jun 2027

Jul-Dec 2027

Jul-Dec 2026

Jan-Jun 2026

34

34

23

9

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