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Prediction markets for AB

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.86%chance

475814557039

OptionVotes

NO

YES

22594

18168

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

94.44%chance

27212587387

OptionVotes

NO

YES

20346

822

Aba Stock

Oct 29, 3:33 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

29571182252

OptionProbability

YES

NO

2592

1904

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.9%chance

613548563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5386

853

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.94%chance

391351512

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3411

823

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.95%chance

427168325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12207

4763

LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027

Apr 26, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.07%chance

9050238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

34067

2935

Will I be able to purchase 1 kg of tungsten for under 150$ by 2028?

Mar 9, 4:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.19%chance

169399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15576

6420

California's AB-1127 ("Glock ban") struck down before 2030?

Oct 14, 8:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.95%chance

377

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

58

5x ABS(Day Change %(SPCX)) The 1st Market Day After 1st Ship Catch Attempt.

Sep 29, 11:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.77%chance

557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

976

By what season will full ABS be implemented in the MLB?

Mar 16, 11:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

221

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

Not by 2029

28

28

28

17

When will AB lose his V card?

Dec 23, 6:44 AMDec 23, 6:44 AM

319

OptionProbability

Before 2027

Before 2028

Before 2029

Before 2030

59

56

52

50

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