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Prediction markets for AB

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.87%chance

412911099948

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28476

16818

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.46%chance

25061976118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11126

1976

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.55%chance

473396509

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3135

2011

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75%chance

293194727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2746

1002

In what season will MLB institute rules that incorporate ABS (robo-umps)

Dec 22, 9:38 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2210819

OptionProbability

2026

2027 or later/never

2024

2025

98

1

0

0

Will @squirtle_says get abs in 2025?

Apr 24, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.89%chance

399725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12718

9554

Will Zohran be Abundance-pilled in his first year as mayor?

Oct 2, 2:34 AMJan 2, 3:31 AM

31.16%chance

124865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14865

6727

What season will ABS (automatic ball-strike system) be incorporated into a full MLB (Major League Baseball) season?

Mar 30, 11:38 AMApr 2, 3:59 AM

91137

OptionProbability

2026

2027, later, or never.

2024

2025

97

3

0

0

Will Amit have visible abs by April 25, 2026?

May 7, 9:19 PMApr 26, 12:00 AM

80.08%chance

6261

OptionVotes

NO

YES

201

50

Will "Survey: How Do Elite Chinese Students Feel Ab..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Sep 4, 4:19 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.18%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

965

Will "What do coherence arguments actually prove ab..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 3, 2:12 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

California's AB-1127 ("Glock ban") struck down before 2030?

Oct 14, 8:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.95%chance

377

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

58

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