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Prediction markets for AB

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

42%chance

386910047371

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11363

9760

In what season will MLB institute rules that incorporate ABS (robo-umps)

Dec 22, 9:38 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

227377

OptionProbability

2026

2027 or later/never

2025

2024

90

9

1

0

Will @squirtle_says get abs in 2025?

Apr 24, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.02%chance

364932

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10761

7308

Will Amit have visible abs by April 25, 2026?

May 7, 9:19 PMApr 26, 12:00 AM

78.4%chance

5251

OptionVotes

NO

YES

191

52

Will "Survey: How Do Elite Chinese Students Feel Ab..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Sep 4, 4:19 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.18%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

965

What season will ABS (automatic ball-strike system) be incorporated into a full MLB (Major League Baseball) season?

Mar 30, 11:38 AMApr 2, 3:59 AM

767

OptionProbability

2027, later, or never.

2026

2025

2024

62

17

15

7

California AB 609 passes?

Apr 28, 3:11 PMDec 31, 4:09 PM

72.99%chance

464

OptionVotes

NO

YES

164

61

Will Major League Baseball green-light the automated ball strike (ABS) challenge* within the next two seasons?

Feb 27, 3:46 PMApr 2, 4:59 AM

69.23%chance

250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

67

California AB 1308 Passes?

Jun 10, 9:42 PMDec 31, 10:41 PM

59.02%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

California AB 1154 Passes?

Jun 9, 6:31 PMDec 31, 7:31 PM

50%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will "What do coherence arguments actually prove ab..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 3, 2:12 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

California AB 253 passes?

Jun 9, 6:28 PMDec 31, 7:26 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

150

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