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OptionProbability
Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days
Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit
≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes
DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement
≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025
Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party
Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)
Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)
Donald Trump remains President of USA
Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel
Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council
Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov
Algeria becomes a member of BRICS
China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken
Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns
Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test
A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)
A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump
Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe
A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)
Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved
A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran
Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine
Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon
Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated
An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours
Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test
At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti
Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government
A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)
Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS
Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS
Argentina becomes a member of BRICS
Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS
Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS
Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS
Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa
Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel
Israel annexes 100% of Gaza
A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed
Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom
A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations
The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024
Azerbaijani troops enter Iran
An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period
At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series
Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Sudanese Civil War ends
A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated
Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States
A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy
China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash
Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus
Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty
Mexico becomes a member of BRICS
United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States
Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack
Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235
A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz
Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership
Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia
1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI
World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada
The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote
Any country leaves NATO
Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup
Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population
China invades Taiwan
Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged
Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State
160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.
USA leaves NATO
Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII
Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member
Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede
United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"
Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)
Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory
Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state
Humans will extinct
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
92
86
85
82
80
75
75
71
68
67
63
62
60
59
59
59
57
56
55
55
54
54
54
53
52
51
50
50
50
50
50
47
47
47
46
46
46
46
46
46
46
46
45
44
44
43
42
42
42
41
40
38
38
37
37
37
36
36
35
34
34
33
33
32
32
31
31
30
29
28
27
27
26
25
25
24
23
23
22
19
18
18
18
15
14
14
14
13
13
12
11
9
8
8
6
6
4
1
OptionProbability
From July 1, 2025 to Dec. 31, 2025
In 2026
After 2026, or never
Between the election and the Inauguration
From when Trump takes office to June 30, 2025
40
31
27
1
1
OptionProbability
16-20
11-15
21-25
6-10
31-35
1-5
26-30
36-40
41-45
Other
38
32
22
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
224
45
OptionProbability
Jimmy Carter
Barack Obama
William J. Clinton
Franklin D. Roosevelt
Harry S. Truman
John F. Kennedy
Ronald Reagan
Lyndon B. Johnson
Woodrow Wilson
Ulysses S. Grant
George H. W. Bush
Andrew Jackson
George W. Bush
Herbert Hoover
Theodore Roosevelt
Thomas Jefferson
Richard M. Nixon
Donald J. Trump
79
70
69
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
46
38
13
OptionProbability
Will Hamas stay in power as the govt and state of the strip?
Will Israel retain a military or police presence all along the philadelphy corridor?
Will Hamas comply with the deal?
Will Israel comply with the deal?
IF Trump pressured Israel into accepting this seemingly unfavorable deal, did he offer something valuable in return?
Did Trump pressure Israel into accepting an unfavorable deal?
This something in return is carte blanche for Israel to annex the west bank
This something in return is a guaranteed continuation of the Abraham accords
This something in return is an attack against Iran (regime change, nuclear program, or even invasion)
73
68
51
50
50
32
28
22
22
