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Prediction markets for Acceleration

Will the scientific consensus that the universe's expansion is accelerating end before the end of 2030?

Sep 2, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.96%chance

9475647

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3558

1754

Will the new Tesla Roadster have rockets providing propulsion (not extra grip) for additional acceleration?

Apr 1, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.51%chance

203260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2414

498

Will I Think Extropic AI Accelerated Timelines by EOY 2027?

Dec 2, 11:00 AMDec 10, 7:59 AM

10.38%chance

262340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2404

674

By 2040 will we use Simulated Humans in Clinical Trials to accelerate drug development & approvals as Kurzweil Predicts?

Mar 8, 9:38 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

35%chance

201677

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1044

886

Is Russia accelerating the climate crisis?

Feb 27, 7:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.77%chance

121367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

956

Impala Canada to accelerate shutdown in 2026

Aug 26, 12:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

51365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2000

500

Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?

Dec 26, 8:33 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

70.56%chance

261072

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

904

Will a major cosmological simulation be AI-accelerated by the end of 2027?

Oct 12, 1:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.67%chance

28878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1235

577

Will Y Combinator accept fewer companies into its accelerator between 2028-2030 than between 2020-2022?

Jan 5, 8:09 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.17%chance

23774

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

923

Will we see analog accelerators in consumer hardware by the end of 2026?

Nov 15, 3:40 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.93%chance

14609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1350

926

Will Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?

Oct 29, 1:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

35.15%chance

3500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1358

736

Will there be a lunar particle accelerator by the beginning of 2050?

Nov 15, 7:04 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

26.84%chance

17330

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

892

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