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Prediction markets for ACCESS Act

Will audio recordings of FDIC malfeasance vis crypto be confirmed?

Jan 12, 9:50 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

3.84%chance

5957890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

52450

2834

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9916

2845

Will Israel conduct an attack that significantly degrades Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility before January 2026?

Jun 18, 3:11 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

3.15%chance

314509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2443

18

SCREEN Act passes during 119th Congress?

Aug 4, 6:19 PMJan 2, 11:59 PM

51.18%chance

84233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

977

By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended?

Feb 17, 6:30 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

65.64%chance

18725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

839

Will Michigan HB 4938 (“Anticorruption of Public Morals Act”) become law with its VPN ban intact by the end of 2026?

Nov 23, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.35%chance

3515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1515

660

My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029

Jun 4, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

57%chance

9301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

869

Will there be new federal regulations in the US limiting employers' access to employee computer activity data by 2030?

Jun 29, 5:32 AMJun 23, 4:59 AM

41.5%chance

5245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1187

842

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will an AI system autonomously access restricted high-risk systems or data by end of 2045?

Dec 4, 3:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.59%chance

3240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1240

806

Will surrogacy be partially or fully tax deductible in the US for federal taxes by EoY 2029

Jan 4, 4:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48%chance

3238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

961

Fair Access to Banking Act pass by EOY2025?

Jul 25, 2:15 AMJan 1, 3:15 AM

25.92%chance

4122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

59

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

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