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Prediction markets for ACCESS Act

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.13%chance

215978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10497

2690

SCREEN Act passes during 119th Congress?

Aug 4, 6:19 PMJan 2, 11:59 PM

42.59%chance

124441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1161

861

Will the UK Government move to restrict access to VPNs this Parliament?

Aug 20, 5:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.31%chance

173004

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1921

520

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will an AI system autonomously access restricted high-risk systems or data by end of 2045?

Dec 4, 3:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.98%chance

102928

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1603

624

By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended?

Feb 17, 6:30 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

74.18%chance

221238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

937

Will a machine/ai uprising occur by 2044?

May 11, 11:04 AMJun 10, 8:59 PM

20.3%chance

271192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

957

Will surrogacy be partially or fully tax deductible in the US for federal taxes by EoY 2029

Jan 4, 4:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

23.77%chance

4988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1791

558

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.21%chance

14835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

943

Will the next presidential election in Venezuela be free and fair?

Jan 17, 12:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

10601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1137

918

My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029

Jun 4, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

57%chance

9301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

869

Will there be new federal regulations in the US limiting employers' access to employee computer activity data by 2030?

Jun 29, 5:32 AMJun 23, 4:59 AM

41.5%chance

5245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1187

842

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

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